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Hold the line: Modeling private coastal adaptation through shoreline armoring decisions

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  • Beasley, W. Jason
  • Dundas, Steven J.

Abstract

A primary conduit for coastal adaptation to climate change on private land is the hardening, or armoring, of the shoreline to mitigate the effects of erosion and sea-level rise (SLR). When such decisions are made at the parcel-level, there is potential for spatial spillovers, including externalities due to deflected wave action and peer effects. We estimate a discrete choice model of landowner armoring choices from 1990 to 2015 in the U.S. state of Oregon that suggests the impacts of spatial spillovers are highly influential determinants in these private adaptation decisions. Our landscape simulations excluding spatial spillovers may under-predict future armoring by 37–97 percent. From scenario-based simulations, we then demonstrate the primacy of policy, as a removal of a current land-use regulation that limits armoring has potential to significantly increase future armoring by 69 percent. Furthermore, inclusion of SLR projections suggests armoring would increase an additional 5.4 percent within four decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Beasley, W. Jason & Dundas, Steven J., 2021. "Hold the line: Modeling private coastal adaptation through shoreline armoring decisions," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:105:y:2021:i:c:s0095069620301200
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2020.102397
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    Cited by:

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    3. Osberghaus, Daniel & Botzen, Wouter & Kesternich, Martin & Iurkova, Ekaterina, 2022. "The Intention-Behavior Gap in Climate Change Adaptation," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264073, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Land use; Climate adaptation; Spatial spillovers; Erosion; Sea-level rise; Armoring;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R14 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Land Use Patterns
    • R52 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Land Use and Other Regulations

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