IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v176y2020icp226-243.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Welfare-based income insecurity in the us and germany: evidence from harmonized panel data

Author

Listed:
  • Rohde, Nicholas
  • Tang, Kam Ki
  • D’Ambrosio, Conchita
  • Osberg, Lars
  • Rao, Prasada

Abstract

This paper develops normative approaches for measuring individual-level income insecurity. Using concepts derived from Expected Utility Theory and Prospect Theory, we build a suite of measures designed to capture various facets of psychologically distressing income risk. We present an application for the US and Germany from 1993–2013, employing conditionally heteroskedastic fixed-effects models to generate predictive densities for future incomes. Our results reveal much higher levels of income risk in the US relative to Germany, which can be mostly attributed to a higher level of autonomous, time-invariant volatility. State-by-state variations in liberal/conservative political administrations partially explain our results, and we find some evidence that trade exposure is a contributing factor in the US.

Suggested Citation

  • Rohde, Nicholas & Tang, Kam Ki & D’Ambrosio, Conchita & Osberg, Lars & Rao, Prasada, 2020. "Welfare-based income insecurity in the us and germany: evidence from harmonized panel data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 226-243.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:176:y:2020:i:c:p:226-243
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2020.04.023
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268120301426
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2020.04.023?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cesar Calvo & Stefan Dercon, 2005. "Measuring Individual Vulnerability," Economics Series Working Papers 229, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Staudigel, Matthias, 2016. "A soft pillow for hard times? Economic insecurity, food intake and body weight in Russia," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 198-212.
    3. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson & Kaveh Majlesi, 2020. "Importing Political Polarization? The Electoral Consequences of Rising Trade Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(10), pages 3139-3183, October.
    4. Richard V. Burkhauser & John G. Poupore, 1997. "A Cross-National Comparison Of Permanent Inequality In The United States And Germany," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(1), pages 10-17, February.
    5. Watson, Barry & Osberg, Lars, 2017. "Healing and/or breaking? The mental health implications of repeated economic insecurity," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 119-127.
    6. Ziliak, James P. & Hardy, Bradley & Bollinger, Christopher, 2011. "Earnings volatility in America: Evidence from matched CPS," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 742-754.
    7. Reichert, Arndt R. & Tauchmann, Harald, 2017. "Workforce reduction, subjective job insecurity, and mental health," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 187-212.
    8. Di Tella, Rafael & Haisken-De New, John & MacCulloch, Robert, 2010. "Happiness adaptation to income and to status in an individual panel," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 834-852, December.
    9. Lars Osberg, 1998. "Economic Insecurity," Discussion Papers 0088, University of New South Wales, Social Policy Research Centre.
    10. Clark, Andrew & Knabe, Andreas & Rätzel, Steffen, 2010. "Boon or bane? Others' unemployment, well-being and job insecurity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 52-61, January.
    11. Rohde, Nicholas & Tang, Kam Ki & Osberg, Lars & Rao, D.S. Prasada, 2017. "Is it vulnerability or economic insecurity that matters for health?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 307-319.
    12. Berloffa, Gabriella & Modena, Francesca, 2012. "Economic well-being in Italy: The role of income insecurity and intergenerational inequality," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(3), pages 751-765.
    13. Azar, José & Marinescu, Ioana & Steinbaum, Marshall & Taska, Bledi, 2020. "Concentration in US labor markets: Evidence from online vacancy data," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Luigi Guiso & Helios Herrera & Massimo Morelli & Tommaso Sonno, 2017. "Demand and Supply of Populism," EIEF Working Papers Series 1703, Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance (EIEF), revised Feb 2017.
    15. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    16. Anne Case & Angus Deaton, 2017. "Mortality and Morbidity in the 21st Century," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 397-476.
    17. Flávio Cunha & James Heckman, 2016. "Decomposing Trends in Inequality in Earnings into Forecastable and Uncertain Components," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S2), pages 31-65.
    18. Burgess, Simon & Gardiner, Karen & Jenkins, Stephen & Propper, Carol, 2000. "Measuring income risk," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51327, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Kong, Nancy & Osberg, Lars & Zhou, Weina, 2019. "The shattered “Iron Rice Bowl”: Intergenerational effects of Chinese State-Owned Enterprise reform," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    20. Walter Bossert & Conchita D'Ambrosio, 2013. "Measuring Economic Insecurity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1017-1030, August.
    21. Walter Bossert & Conchita D'Ambrosio, 2013. "Measuring Economic Insecurity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54, pages 1017-1030, August.
    22. Hoddinott, John & Quisumbing, Agnes, 2003. "Methods for microeconometric risk and vulnerability assessments," Social Protection Discussion Papers and Notes 29138, The World Bank.
    23. Terence C. Cheng & Pravin K. Trivedi, 2015. "Attrition Bias in Panel Data: A Sheep in Wolf's Clothing? A Case Study Based on the Mabel Survey," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(9), pages 1101-1117, September.
    24. Shin, Donggyun & Solon, Gary, 2011. "Trends in men's earnings volatility: What does the Panel Study of Income Dynamics show?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 973-982, August.
    25. By James Feigenbaum & Geng Li, 2015. "Household income uncertainties over three decades," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 963-986.
    26. Guiso, Luigi & Herrera, Helios & Morelli, Massimo & Sonno, Tommaso, 2018. "Populism: Demand and Supply," CEPR Discussion Papers 11871, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Catalano, R., 1991. "The health effects of economic insecurity," American Journal of Public Health, American Public Health Association, vol. 81(9), pages 1148-1152.
    28. Guy Standing, 2008. "Economic Insecurity and Global Casualisation: Threat or Promise?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 88(1), pages 15-30, August.
    29. Meghir, Costas & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2011. "Earnings, Consumption and Life Cycle Choices," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 773-854, Elsevier.
    30. Kenneth F. Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2001. "Labor Market Competition And Individual Preferences Over Immigration Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 133-145, February.
    31. José Azar & Ioana Marinescu & Marshall Steinbaum, 2022. "Labor Market Concentration," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 57(S), pages 167-199.
    32. Itzhak Gilboa & David Schmeidler, 2001. "A cognitive model of individual well-being," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 18(2), pages 269-288.
    33. Gordon Anderson, 2018. "Measuring Aspects of Mobility, Polarization and Convergence in the Absence of Cardinality: Indices Based Upon Transitional Typology," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 139(3), pages 887-907, October.
    34. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    35. Gulgun Bayaz-Ozturk & Richard V. Burkhauser & Kenneth A. Couch, 2014. "Consolidating The Evidence On Income Mobility In The Western States Of Germany And The United States From 1984 To 2006," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(1), pages 431-443, January.
    36. Fields, Gary S. & Ok, Efe A., 1996. "The Meaning and Measurement of Income Mobility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 349-377, November.
    37. Nicholas Rohde & Kam Ki Tang & Lars Osberg & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2015. "Economic Insecurity in Australia: Who is Feeling the Pinch and How?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(292), pages 1-15, March.
    38. William Milberg, Deborah Winkler, 2009. "WP 2009-6 Economic Insecurity in the New Wave of Globalization," SCEPA working paper series. 2009-6, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    39. Robert A. Moffitt & Peter Gottschalk, 2012. "Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings: Methods and Evidence," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 47(1), pages 204-236.
    40. Peter Gottschalk & Robert Moffitt, 2009. "The Rising Instability of U.S. Earnings," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 3-24, Fall.
    41. Inglehart, Ronald F. & Norris, Pippa, 2016. "Trump, Brexit, and the Rise of Populism: Economic Have-Nots and Cultural Backlash," Working Paper Series 16-026, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    42. Walter Bossert & Conchita D'Ambrosio, 2016. "Economic insecurity and variations in resources," Working Papers 422, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    43. Ethan Ligon & Laura Schechter, 2003. "Measuring Vulnerability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 95-102, March.
    44. Offer, Avner & Pechey, Rachel & Ulijaszek, Stanley, 2010. "Obesity under affluence varies by welfare regimes: The effect of fast food, insecurity, and inequality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 297-308, December.
    45. Osberg, L., 1998. "Economic Insecurity in the Malaysian Context," Working Papers 18, John Deutsch Institute for the Study of Economic Policy.
    46. Kenneth Scheve & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2004. "Economic Insecurity and the Globalization of Production," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 662-674, October.
    47. Offer, Avner & Pechey, Rachel & Ulijaszek, Stanley, 2010. "Obesity under affluence varies by welfare regimes: The effect of fast food, insecurity, and inequality," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 297-308, December.
    48. Dynan Karen & Elmendorf Douglas & Sichel Daniel, 2012. "The Evolution of Household Income Volatility," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-42, December.
    49. Barnes Michael G & Smith Trenton G., 2009. "Tobacco Use as Response to Economic Insecurity: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-29, November.
    50. Anne Case & Angua Deaton, 2015. "Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century," Working Papers 15078.full.pdf, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    51. Atkinson, Anthony B., 1970. "On the measurement of inequality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 244-263, September.
    52. Stephen P. Jenkins, 2009. "Distributionally‐Sensitive Inequality Indices And The Gb2 Income Distribution," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 55(2), pages 392-398, June.
    53. Frick, Joachim R. & Jenkings, Stephen P. & Lillard, Dean R. & Lipps, Oliver & Wooden, Mark, 2007. "The Cross-National Equivalent File (CNEF) and Its Member Country Household Panel Studies," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 127(4), pages 627-654.
    54. Nicholas C. Barberis, 2013. "Thirty Years of Prospect Theory in Economics: A Review and Assessment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 173-196, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dmitry Petrov & Marina Romaguera-de-la-Cruz, 2023. "Measuring economic insecurity with a joint income-wealth approach," Working Papers 637, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicholas Rohde & Kam Ki Tang & D.S. Prasada Rao, 2014. "Distributional Characteristics of Income Insecurity in the U.S., Germany, and Britain," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 159-176, May.
    2. Conchita D'Ambrosio & Nicholas Rohde, 2014. "The Distribution of Economic Insecurity: Italy and the U.S. over the Great Recession," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 33-52, May.
    3. Markus Jäntti & Ravi Kanbur & Milla Nyyssölä & Jukka Pirttilä, 2014. "Poverty and Welfare Measurement on the Basis of Prospect Theory," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(1), pages 182-205, March.
    4. Markus Jäntti & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2013. "Income Mobility," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 607, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    5. Marina Romaguera de la Cruz, 2017. "Economic insecurity in Spain: A multidimensional analysis," Working Papers 448, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    6. Belmonte, A & Pickard, H, 2022. "Safe at Last? LATE Effects of a Mass Immunization Campaign on Households’ Economic Insecurity," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 604, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    7. Rohde, Nicholas & Tang, Kam Ki & Osberg, Lars & Rao, D.S. Prasada, 2017. "Is it vulnerability or economic insecurity that matters for health?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 307-319.
    8. Cantó, Olga & García-Pérez, Carmelo & Romaguera-de-la-Cruz, Marina, 2020. "The dimension, nature and distribution of economic insecurity in European countries: A multidimensional approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(3).
    9. Marek Kośny & Maria Piotrowska, 2019. "Assessment of Economic Security of Households Based on a Scenario Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Rohde, Nicholas & Tang, K.K. & Osberg, Lars & Rao, Prasada, 2016. "The effect of economic insecurity on mental health: Recent evidence from Australian panel data," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 250-258.
    11. Maite Blázquez & Ana I. Moro Egido, 2020. "Financial insecurity and subjective well-being. Europe in crossnational perspective," ThE Papers 20/07, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    12. Francesca Modena & Concetta Rondinelli & Fabio Sabatini, 2014. "Economic Insecurity and Fertility Intentions: The Case of Italy," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S1), pages 233-255, May.
    13. Isabel Günther & Johannes K. Maier, 2014. "Poverty, Vulnerability, and Reference-Dependent Utility," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(1), pages 155-181, March.
    14. Watson, Barry & Osberg, Lars, 2019. "Can positive income anticipations reverse the mental health impacts of negative income anxieties?," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 107-122.
    15. Louis Chauvel & Anne Hartung & Flaviana Palmisano, 2017. "Dynamics of Income Rank Volatility: Evidence from Germany and the US," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 926, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    16. Markus Jäntti & Ravi Kanbur & Milla Nyyssölä & Jukka Pirttilä, 2014. "Poverty and Welfare Measurement on the Basis of Prospect Theory," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(1), pages 182-205, March.
    17. Rohde, Nicholas, 2023. "Economic insecurity, nativism, and the erosion of institutional trust," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 1017-1028.
    18. Celidoni, Martina, 2011. "Vulnerability to poverty: An empirical comparison of alternative measures," MPRA Paper 33002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2014. "Earnings and labour market volatility in Britain, with a transatlantic comparison," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 201-211.
    20. Barbara Dluhosch, 2018. "Trade, Inequality, and Subjective Well-Being: Getting at the Roots of the Backlash Against Globalization," LIS Working papers 741, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic insecurity; Income risk; Panel data; Reference dependent utility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:176:y:2020:i:c:p:226-243. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.