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On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics

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  • Berardi, Michele

Abstract

In this article, we investigate the possibility of sunspot equilibria to emerge from a process of learning and adaptation on agents’ beliefs. We consider both finite state Markov sunspots and sunspots in autoregressive form, and derive conditions for the existence of an heterogeneous equilibrium where only a fraction of agents condition their forecasts on the sunspot. We then show that when the fraction of agents conditioning their forecasts on a sunspot changes over time, under evolutionary dynamics, these restrictions need to evolve endogenously with population shares. We argue that such requirement questions the possibility of sunspot equilibria to emerge through a process of evolution and adaptation on agents’ beliefs: in order for a sunspot equilibrium to emerge, all agents must simultaneously coordinate on the same sunspot variable at the same time.

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  • Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:112:y:2015:i:c:p:251-265
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2015.02.008
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    3. Michele Berardi, 2015. "Expectations formation under adaptive learning and evolutionary dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 206, Economics, The University of Manchester.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sunspots; Heterogeneity; Expectations; Learning; Evolutionary dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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