IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ore/uoecwp/2002-16.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables

Author

Listed:
  • George W. Evans

    (University of Oregon Economics Department)

  • Bruce McGough

    (Oregon State University)

Abstract

We consider a linear stochastic univariate rational expectations model, with a predetermined variable, and provide alternative representations of SSEs (stationary sunspot equilibria). For a strict subset of the parameter space there exist SSEs that are locally stable under least squares learning provided agents use a common factor representation for their estimated law of motion. These results indicate that for some parameter regions SSEs are more likely to arise under private agent learning than previously recognized.

Suggested Citation

  • George W. Evans & Bruce McGough, 2002. "Stable Sunspot Solutions in Models with Predetermined Variables," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2002-16, University of Oregon Economics Department, revised 29 May 2003.
    • Handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2002-16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://economics.uoregon.edu/papers/UO-2002-16_Evans_Stable_Sunspot.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
    2. Benhabib Jess & Farmer Roger E. A., 1994. "Indeterminacy and Increasing Returns," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 19-41, June.
    3. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
    4. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 125-134, July.
    5. George Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 1986. "A Complete Characterization of ARMA Solutions to Linear Rational Expectations Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(2), pages 227-239.
    6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    7. Laurence Broze & Christian Gourieroux & Ariane Szafarz, 1990. "Reduced Forms of Rational Expectations Models," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/647, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1994. "Learning, convergence, and stability with multiple rational expectations equilibria," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 1071-1098, May.
    9. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
    10. Cass, David & Shell, Karl, 1983. "Do Sunspots Matter?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 193-227, April.
    11. Guesnerie, Roger, 1986. "Stationary sunspot equilibria in an N commodity world," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 103-127, October.
    12. Farmer Roger E. A. & Guo Jang-Ting, 1994. "Real Business Cycles and the Animal Spirits Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 42-72, June.
    13. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October.
    14. Barnett,William A. & Geweke,John & Shell,Karl (ed.), 1989. "Economic Complexity: Chaos, Sunspots, Bubbles, and Nonlinearity," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521355636.
    15. Evans, George W & Honkapohja, Seppo, 1992. "On the Robustness of Bubbles in Linear RE Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, February.
    16. Gourieroux, C & Laffont, J J & Monfort, Alain, 1982. "Rational Expectations in Dynamic Linear Models: Analysis of the Solutions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 409-425, March.
    17. Duffy John, 1994. "On Learning and the Nonuniqueness of Equilibrium in an Overlapping Generations Model with Fiat Money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 541-553, December.
    18. Azariadis, Costas, 1981. "Self-fulfilling prophecies," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 380-396, December.
    19. Evans George W. & Honkapohja Seppo, 1994. "On the Local Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 142-161, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2020. "Stable near-rational sunspot equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    2. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.
    3. Evans George W & Honkapohja Seppo M.S. & Marimon Ramon, 2007. "Stable Sunspot Equilibria in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-38, January.
    4. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 27, Econometric Society.
    5. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Strategic interactions, incomplete information and learning," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 157, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    6. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October.
    7. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 557, Econometric Society.
    8. Dmitri Kolyuzhnov & Anna Bogomolova, 2004. "Escape Dynamics: A Continuous Time Approximation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 190, Society for Computational Economics.
    9. Ennis, Huberto M. & Keister, Todd, 2005. "Government policy and the probability of coordination failures," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 939-973, May.
    10. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2004. "Are non-fundamental equilibria learnable in models of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1743-1770, November.
    11. Sergey Slobodyan, 1999. "Sunspot Fluctuations: A Way Out of a Development Trap?," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 922, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Monetary policy, indeterminacy and learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1809-1840, November.
    13. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Existence of adaptively stable sunspot equilibria near an indeterminate steady state," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 125-134, July.
    14. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Khramov, Vadim & Nicolò, Giovanni, 2015. "Solving and estimating indeterminate DSGE models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 17-36.
    15. Heinemann, Maik, 1997. "Convergence of Adaptive Learning and the Concept of Expectational Stability in Linear Rational Expectations Models with Multiple Equilibria," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-207, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    16. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2006. "Imperfect competition and sunspots," Working Papers 2006-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    17. Patir, Assaf, 2019. "Synchronization in Sunspot Models," MPRA Paper 95720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Duffy, John & Xiao, Wei, 2007. "Instability of sunspot equilibria in real business cycle models under adaptive learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 879-903, April.
    19. Slobodyan, Sergey, 2005. "Indeterminacy, sunspots, and development traps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 159-185, January.
    20. Georges, Christophre, 2003. "Adjustment costs, learning, and indeterminacy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 101-116, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ore:uoecwp:2002-16. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bill Harbaugh (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuorus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.