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Heterogeneous expectations, sunspot equilibria and their fragility

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  • Berardi, Michele

Abstract

In a simple, univariate forward looking model, we show how a class of sunspot equilibria can depend on the relative fraction of agents under heterogeneous expectations. We then investigate if such equilibrium could be brought about by endogenous predictor choice dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Berardi, Michele, 2009. "Heterogeneous expectations, sunspot equilibria and their fragility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 276-279, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:105:y:2009:i:3:p:276-279
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. William Branch & George W. Evans, 2007. "Model Uncertainty and Endogenous Volatility," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), pages 207-237, April.
    2. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 2001. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Chapters, in: W. D. Dechert (ed.), Growth Theory, Nonlinear Dynamics and Economic Modelling, chapter 16, pages 402-438, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Berardi, Michele, 2007. "Heterogeneity and misspecifications in learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3203-3227, October.
    4. Evans, George W. & McGough, Bruce, 2005. "Stable sunspot solutions in models with predetermined variables," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 601-625, April.
    5. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March.
    6. Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2003. "Expectational stability of stationary sunspot equilibria in a forward-looking linear model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 171-181, October.
    7. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michele Berardi, 2021. "Discrete beliefs space and equilibrium: a cautionary note," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 505-532, April.
    2. Alberto Locarno, 2012. "Monetary policy in a model with misspecified, heterogeneous and ever-changing expectations," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 888, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Bruce McGough & Ryuichi Nakagawa, 2019. "Stability of Sunspot Equilibria under Adaptive Learning with Imperfect Information," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 005, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Michele Berardi, 2015. "Expectations formation under adaptive learning and evolutionary dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 206, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    5. Michele Berardi, 2011. "Heterogeneous sunspots solutions under learning and replicator dynamics," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 160, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    6. Berardi, Michele, 2015. "On the fragility of sunspot equilibria under learning and evolutionary dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-265.

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