Analyzing the diffusion of competitive smart wearable devices: An agent-based multi-dimensional relative agreement model

Intense innovation competition is increasing products’ complexity. Consumers have to trade off among multiple product attributes before purchasing. Information technologies boost frequent interactions among consumers and lead their opinions to high mutability, which poses challenges for product suppliers. To obtain an in-depth understanding of the diffusion mechanism of emerging technologies in a highly competitive, complex, and dynamic environment, this paper builds an agent-based multi-dimensional relative agreement model and uses smartwatches as a concrete example to analyze their diffusion processes. Three numerical experiments are conducted, respectively focusing on: (1) characteristics of consumer groups; (2) new media marketing strategy; (3) initial expectation management. The results demonstrate: (1) high connectivity with low information uncertainty thresholds benefits product diffusion rate; (2) early promotion and moderate publicity are effective when new media is involved to promote new products; (3) the same initial expectation management strategy may give rise to different diffusion patterns; (4) highly inconsistent consumer opinions hinder product diffusion.