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Default probabilities of privately held firms

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  • Duan, Jin-Chuan
  • Kim, Baeho
  • Kim, Woojin
  • Shin, Donghwa

Abstract

We estimate the term structures of the default probabilities for private firms using data consisting of 1759 default events from 29,894 firms between 1999 and 2014. Each firm’s default likelihood is characterized by a forward intensity model employing macro risk factors and firm-specific attributes. As private firms do not have traded stock prices, we devise a methodology to obtain a public-firm equivalent distance-to-default by projection that references the distance-to-defaults of public firms with comparable attributes. The fitted model provides accurate multi-period forecasts of defaults, leading to both economically and statistically significant benefits over benchmark models. The reported interest rates charged to private firms are reflective of the estimated default term structure.

Suggested Citation

  • Duan, Jin-Chuan & Kim, Baeho & Kim, Woojin & Shin, Donghwa, 2018. "Default probabilities of privately held firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 235-250.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:235-250
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2018.08.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    7. Thi Mai Luong, 2020. "Selection Effects of Lender and Borrower Choices on Risk Measurement, Management and Prudential Regulation," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 3-2020, January-A.
    8. Iván Arribas & Emili Tortosa-Ausina & TingTing Zhu, 2021. "Optimal capital structure, model uncertainty, and European SMEs," Working Papers 2021/11, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    9. Li, Bin & Liang, Yilan & Shahab, Yasir & Gull, Ammar Ali & Ashraf, Naeem, 2022. "Parent-subsidiary dispersion, cost of debt and debt default: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    10. Suleiman A. Badayi & Bolaji T. Matemilola & Bany‐Ariffin A.N & Lau Wei Theng, 2021. "Does corporate social responsibility influence firm probability of default?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3377-3395, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default probability; Term structure; Privately held firm; Interest charge;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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