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A semiparametric conditional capital asset pricing model

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  • Cai, Zongwu
  • Ren, Yu
  • Yang, Bingduo

Abstract

This paper proposes using a functional coefficient regression technique to estimate time-varying betas and alpha in the conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM). Functional coefficient representation relaxes the strict assumptions regarding the structure of betas and alpha by combining the predictors into an index. Appropriate index variables are selected by applying the smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty. In such a way, estimation and variable selection can be done simultaneously. Based on the empirical studies, the proposed model performs better than the alternatives in explaining asset returns and we find no strong evidence to reject the conditional CAPM.

Suggested Citation

  • Cai, Zongwu & Ren, Yu & Yang, Bingduo, 2015. "A semiparametric conditional capital asset pricing model," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 117-126.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:61:y:2015:i:c:p:117-126
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.09.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Shengjie Hong & Yu-Chin Hsu & Yuanyuan Wan, 2023. "Subvector inference for Varying Coefficient Models with Partial Identification," Working Papers tecipa-756, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    5. Cai, Zongwu & Fang, Ying & Xu, Qiuhua, 2022. "Testing capital asset pricing models using functional-coefficient panel data models with cross-sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 227(1), pages 114-133.
    6. Yudong Wang & Zhiyuan Pan & Chongfeng Wu, 2017. "Time‐Varying Parameter Realized Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 566-580, August.
    7. Isabel Casas & Eva Ferreira & Susan Orbe, 2021. "Time-Varying Coefficient Estimation in SURE Models. Application to Portfolio Management," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 707-745.
    8. Yuying Sun & Shaoxin Hong & Zongwu Cai, 2023. "Optimal Local Model Averaging for Divergent-Dimensional Functional-Coefficient Regressions," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202309, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2023.
    9. Pan, Zhiyuan & Wang, Qing & Wang, Yudong & Yang, Li, 2018. "Forecasting U.S. real GDP using oil prices: A time-varying parameter MIDAS model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 177-187.
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    11. Li Liu & Zhiyuan Pan & Yudong Wang, 2021. "What can we learn from the return predictability over the business cycle?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 108-131, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional capital asset pricing model; Functional coefficient regression; Smoothly clipped absolute deviation penalty; Variable selection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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