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Two-Step Estimation of Linear Models with Ordinal Unobserved Variables: The Case of Corporate Bonds

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  • Kao, Chihwa
  • Wu, Chunchi

Abstract

This article proposes a two-step method for estimating the impact of bond indenture provisions and other financial variables on the risk and yields of investment-grade and speculative corporate bonds. In the first step, the default risk of bonds is estimated as a function of indenture provisions and the characteristics of bonds and the issuing firms by an ordered probit. In the second step, the effects of default risk and bond characteristics on yields are estimated after a measure of bond default risk is obtained by a conditional-mean method.

Suggested Citation

  • Kao, Chihwa & Wu, Chunchi, 1990. "Two-Step Estimation of Linear Models with Ordinal Unobserved Variables: The Case of Corporate Bonds," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 317-325, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:8:y:1990:i:3:p:317-25
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    Cited by:

    1. Jun Duanmu & Garrett A. McBrayer, 2024. "Structural Drivers of Credit Rating Uncertainty: An Examination of the Changes Imposed by Dodd-Frank," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 243-267, June.
    2. Arthur Brooks, 2004. "Do People Really Care About the Arts for Future Generations?," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 28(4), pages 275-284, November.
    3. Radu Tunaru, 2015. "Model Risk in Financial Markets:From Financial Engineering to Risk Management," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 9524, October.
    4. Chen, Peimin & Wu, Chunchi, 2014. "Default prediction with dynamic sectoral and macroeconomic frailties," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 211-226.
    5. Taneli Mäkinen & Fan Li & Andrea Mercatanti & Andrea Silvestrini, 2020. "Effects of eligibility for central bank purchases on corporate bond spreads," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1300, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Ying Yi Tsai & Li-Gang Liu, 2010. "Emergence of Rating Agencies : Implications for Establishing a Regional Rating Agency in Asia," Finance Working Papers 22824, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    7. Dimitrov, Valentin & Palia, Darius & Tang, Leo, 2015. "Impact of the Dodd-Frank act on credit ratings," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 505-520.
    8. William H. Greene & David A. Hensher, 2008. "Modeling Ordered Choices: A Primer and Recent Developments," Working Papers 08-26, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    9. Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2010. "The development of a simple and intuitive rating system under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 500-510, June.
    10. Ken Hung & Hui Wen Cheng & Shih-shen Chen & Ying-Chen Huang, 2013. "Factors that Affect Credit Rating: An Application of Ordered Probit Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 94-108, December.
    11. Ying Yi Tsai & Li-Gang Liu, 2010. "Emergence of Rating Agencies: Implications for Establishing a Regional Rating Agency in Asia," Working Papers id:2927, eSocialSciences.
    12. Serafeim Tsoukas & Marina-Eliza Spaliara, 2014. "Market Implied Ratings and Financing Constraints: Evidence from US Firms," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1-2), pages 242-269, January.
    13. Mizen, Paul & Tsoukas, Serafeim, 2012. "Forecasting US bond default ratings allowing for previous and initial state dependence in an ordered probit model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 273-287.
    14. Kamhon Kan & Chihwa Kao, 2005. "Simulation-Based Two-Step Estimation with Endogenous Regressors," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 76, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
    15. Mäkinen, Taneli & Li, Fan & Mercatanti, Andrea & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2022. "Causal analysis of central bank holdings of corporate bonds under interference," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    16. Sermpinis, Georgios & Tsoukas, Serafeim & Zhang, Ping, 2018. "Modelling market implied ratings using LASSO variable selection techniques," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-35.
    17. Hilmer, Michael J., 1998. "Post-secondary fees and the decision to attend a university or a community college," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 329-348, March.
    18. Manzoni, Katiuscia, 2004. "Modeling Eurobond credit ratings and forecasting downgrade probability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 277-300.
    19. Perraudin, William & Taylor, Alex P., 2004. "On the consistency of ratings and bond market yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2769-2788, November.

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