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Intersectoral default contagion: A multivariate Poisson autoregression analysis

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  • Escribano, Ana
  • Maggi, Mario

Abstract

This paper analyzes credit rating default dependencies in a multisectoral framework. Using Mergent's FISD database, we study the default series in the U.S. over the last two decades, disaggregating defaults by industry-sector group. During this period, two main waves of default occurred: the implosion of the “dot-com” bubble and the global financial crisis. We estimate a Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Poisson model according to the biweekly number of defaults that occurred in different sectors of the economy from 1996 to 2015. We discuss the contagion effect between sectors in two ways: the degree of transmission of the probability of default from one sector to another, i.e., the “infectivity” of the sector, and the degree of contagion of one sector from another, i.e., the “vulnerability” of the sector. Our results show differences between the sectors' relations during the first and second part of our sample. We add some exogenous variables to the analysis and evaluate their contribution to the goodness of fit.

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  • Escribano, Ana & Maggi, Mario, 2019. "Intersectoral default contagion: A multivariate Poisson autoregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 376-400.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:82:y:2019:i:c:p:376-400
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.01.020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Wang, Xiaoting & Hou, Siyuan & Shen, Jie, 2021. "Default clustering of the nonfinancial sector and systemic risk: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 196-208.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Default contagion; Financial crises; Poisson autoregressive process; Intensity estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

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