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Overreaction of country ETFs to US market returns: Intraday vs. daily horizons and the role of synchronized trading

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  • Levy, Ariel
  • Lieberman, Offer

Abstract

In this paper we study the intraday price formation process of country Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). We identify specific parts of the US trading day during which Net Asset Values (NAVs), currency rates, premiums and discounts, and the S&P 500 index have special effects on ETF prices, and characterize a special intraday and overnight updating structure between these variables and country ETF prices. Our findings suggest a structural difference between synchronized and non-synchronized trading hours. While during synchronized trading hours ETF prices are mostly driven by their NAV returns, during non-synchronized trading hours the S&P 500 index has a dominant effect. This effect also exceeds the one that the S&P 500 index has on the underlying foreign indices and suggests an overreaction to US market returns when foreign markets are closed.

Suggested Citation

  • Levy, Ariel & Lieberman, Offer, 2013. "Overreaction of country ETFs to US market returns: Intraday vs. daily horizons and the role of synchronized trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1412-1421.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:37:y:2013:i:5:p:1412-1421
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.03.024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Offer Lieberman & Peter C. B. Phillips, 2014. "Norming Rates And Limit Theory For Some Time-Varying Coefficient Autoregressions," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 592-623, November.
    2. Lachance, Marie-Eve, 2021. "The new ETF Rule: Rethinking intraday indicative values," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    3. Ashtiani, Amin Zokaei & Rieger, Marc Oliver & Stutz, David, 2021. "Nudging against panic selling: Making use of the IKEA effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    4. Stephen Bahadar & Christopher Gan & Cuong Nguyen, 2020. "Performance Dynamics of International Exchange-Traded Funds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-14, August.
    5. Yavas, Burhan F. & Dedi, Lidija, 2016. "An investigation of return and volatility linkages among equity markets: A study of selected European and emerging countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 583-596.
    6. S. Narend & M. Thenmozhi, 2019. "Do Country ETFs Influence Foreign Stock Market Index? Evidence from India ETFs," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(1_suppl), pages 59-86, April.
    7. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2020. "Happiness sentiments and the prediction of cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Gaurav Raizada & Vartika Srivastava & S. V. D. Nageswara Rao, 2020. "Shall One Sit “Longer” for a Free Lunch? Impact of Trading Durations on the Realized Variances and Volatility Spillovers," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(1), pages 1-28, March.
    9. Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Hsu, Chih-Hsiang & Lee, Yun-Huan, 2016. "Location of trade, return comovements, and diversification benefits: Evidence from Asian country ETFs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 279-296.
    10. Borgards, Oliver & Czudaj, Robert L. & Hoang, Thi Hong Van, 2021. "Price overreactions in the commodity futures market: An intraday analysis of the Covid-19 pandemic impact," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    11. Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Tseng, Yung-Ching & Yang, Chung-Jen, 2014. "Commonality in liquidity, liquidity distribution, and financial crisis: Evidence from country ETFs," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 35-58.
    12. Lidija Dedi & Burhan F. Yavas, 2016. "Return and volatility spillovers in equity markets: An investigation using various GARCH methodologies," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1266788-126, December.
    13. Naka, Atsuyuki & Noman, Abdullah, 2017. "Diversification of risk exposure through country mutual funds under alternative investment opportunities," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 215-227.
    14. Bassiouny, Aliaa & Tooma, Eskandar, 2021. "Intraday indirect arbitrage between European index ETFs," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    15. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2020. "Do natural disasters and geopolitical risks matter for cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    16. Bertone, Stephen & Paeglis, Imants & Ravi, Rahul, 2015. "(How) has the market become more efficient?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 72-86.
    17. Raphael Cunha & Andreas Kern, 2022. "Global banking and the spillovers from political shocks at the core of the world economy," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 717-749, October.
    18. Tseng, Tseng-Chan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2015. "Volatility forecast of country ETF: The sequential information arrival hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 228-234.
    19. Holger Fink & Yulia Klimova & Claudia Czado & Jakob Stöber, 2017. "Regime Switching Vine Copula Models for Global Equity and Volatility Indices," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-38, January.
    20. Chen, Mei-Ping & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hsu, Yi-Chung, 2017. "Investor sentiment and country exchange traded funds: Does economic freedom matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 285-299.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ETF; Synchronized trading; Overreaction; Hedging; Structured products; Arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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