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Detecting the presence of insider trading via structural break tests

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  • Olmo, Jose
  • Pilbeam, Keith
  • Pouliot, William

Abstract

The occurrence of abnormal returns before the unscheduled announcement of price sensitive information is a potential indicator of insider trading. We identify insider trading with a structural change in the intercept of an extended capital asset pricing model. To detect such a change we introduce a consistent timing structural break test (CTSB) based upon a U-statistic type process. Unlike the traditional CUSUM test, the CTSB test provides a consistent estimator of the timing of a break in the intercept that occurs across the whole evaluation period. We apply our test to a rich data set covering 370 price sensitive announcements relating to FTSE 350 companies. Our test is able to detect potential insider trading far more reliably than the standard CUSUM test. We also show that the majority of suspected insider trading takes place in the 25Â days prior to the release of market sensitive information.

Suggested Citation

  • Olmo, Jose & Pilbeam, Keith & Pouliot, William, 2011. "Detecting the presence of insider trading via structural break tests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2820-2828, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:2820-2828
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    3. Pouliot, William, 2016. "Robust tests for change in intercept and slope in linear regression models with application to manager performance in the mutual fund industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 523-534.
    4. Simon de Bonviller & Alec Zuo & Sarah Ann Wheeler, 2019. "Is there evidence of insider trading in Australian water markets?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 63(2), pages 307-327, April.
    5. Xihan Xiong & Zhipeng Wang & Tianxiang Cui & William Knottenbelt & Michael Huth, 2023. "Market Misconduct in Decentralized Finance (DeFi): Analysis, Regulatory Challenges and Policy Implications," Papers 2311.17715, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    6. James, Robert & Leung, Henry & Prokhorov, Artem, 2023. "A machine learning attack on illegal trading," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    7. Batten, Jonathan A. & Lončarski, Igor & Szilagyi, Peter G., 2021. "Strategic insider trading in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    8. Cline, Brandon N. & Posylnaya, Valeriya V., 2019. "Illegal insider trading: Commission and SEC detection," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 247-269.
    9. Luke M. Bennett & Wei Hu, 2023. "Filtration enlargement‐based time series forecast in view of insider trading," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 112-140, February.
    10. Michael Buchner & Tobias A. Jopp, 2019. "Full steam ahead: Insider knowledge, stock trading and the nationalization of the railways in Prussia around 1879," Working Papers 0151, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    11. Hanedar, Avni Önder & Yaldız Hanedar, Elmas & Göktan, Mehmet Gökhan, 2022. "Insider trading on Ottoman sovereign default: The Ottoman General Debt Bond at European and İstanbul financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    12. Nguyen, Vinh & Tran, Anh & Zeckhauser, Richard, 2017. "Stock splits to profit insider trading: Lessons from an emerging market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 69-87.
    13. Keshab Bhattarai, 2015. "Financial deepening and economic growth," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(11), pages 1133-1150, March.
    14. Sahbi FARHANI, 2012. "Tests of Parameters Instability: Theoretical Study and Empirical Analysis on Two Types of Models (ARMA Model and Market Model)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 246-266.
    15. James Reade, 2014. "Detecting corruption in football," Chapters, in: John Goddard & Peter Sloane (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 25, pages 419-446, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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