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Time-consistency in managing a commodity portfolio: A dynamic risk measure approach

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  • Geman, Hélyette
  • Ohana, Steve

Abstract

We address the problem of managing a storable commodity portfolio, that includes physical assets and positions in spot and forward markets. The vast amount of capital involved in the acquisition of a power plant or storage facility implies that the financing period stretches over a period of several quarters or years. Hence, an intertemporally consistent way of optimizing the portfolio over the planning horizon is required. We demonstrate the temporal inconsistency of static risk objectives based on final wealth and advocate the validity in our setting of a new class of recursive risk measures introduced by Epstein and Zin [Epstein, G., Zin, S., 1989. Substitution, risk aversion, and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework. Econometrica, 57 (4) 937-969] and Wang [Wang, T., 2000. A class of dynamic risk measures University of British Columbia]. These risk measures provide important insights on the trade-offs between date-specific risks (i.e., losses occurring at a point in time) and time-duration risks represented by the pair (return, risk) over a planning horizon; in a number of situations, they dramatically improve the efficiency of static risk objectives, as exhibited in numerical examples.

Suggested Citation

  • Geman, Hélyette & Ohana, Steve, 2008. "Time-consistency in managing a commodity portfolio: A dynamic risk measure approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 1991-2005, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:32:y:2008:i:10:p:1991-2005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    9. Weber, Stefan, 2003. "Distribution-Invariant Dynamic Risk Measures," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,53, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Kleindorfer & Lide Li, 2011. "Portfolio risk management and carbon emissions valuation in electric power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 40(3), pages 219-236, December.
    2. Liu, Peng (Peter) & Tang, Ke, 2010. "No-arbitrage conditions for storable commodities and the modeling of futures term structures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1675-1687, July.
    3. Yuze Li & Shangrong Jiang & Yunjie Wei & Shouyang Wang, 2021. "Take Bitcoin into your portfolio: a novel ensemble portfolio optimization framework for broad commodity assets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, December.
    4. Oliveira, Sydnei Marssal de & Ribeiro, Celma de Oliveira & Cicogna, Maria Paula Vieira, 2018. "Uncertainty effects on production mix and on hedging decisions: The case of Brazilian ethanol and sugar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 516-524.
    5. Zhiping Chen & Jia Liu & Gang Li & Zhe Yan, 2016. "Composite time-consistent multi-period risk measure and its application in optimal portfolio selection," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 24(3), pages 515-540, October.
    6. Keilhacker, Michael L. & Minner, Stefan, 2017. "Supply chain risk management for critical commodities: A system dynamics model for the case of the rare earth elements," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 349-362.
    7. Günter Bamberg & Michael Krapp, 2016. "Is time consistency compatible with risk aversion?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 195-211, March.
    8. Hans Ulrich Buhl & Björn Steven Häckel & Florian Probst & Josef Schosser, 2016. "On the Ex Ante Valuation of IT Service Investments," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 58(6), pages 415-432, December.
    9. Roger J. A. Laeven & Mitja Stadje, 2014. "Robust Portfolio Choice and Indifference Valuation," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 39(4), pages 1109-1141, November.
    10. Sripad K. Devalkar & Ravi Anupindi & Amitabh Sinha, 2018. "Dynamic Risk Management of Commodity Operations: Model and Analysis," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 20(2), pages 317-332, May.

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