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Banker judgement versus formal forecasting models: The case of country risk assessment

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  • Somerville, R. A.
  • Taffler, R. J.

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  • Somerville, R. A. & Taffler, R. J., 1995. "Banker judgement versus formal forecasting models: The case of country risk assessment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 281-297, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:19:y:1995:i:2:p:281-297
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    1. Derek Bunn & George Wright, 1991. "Interaction of Judgemental and Statistical Forecasting Methods: Issues & Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(5), pages 501-518, May.
    2. Oral, Muhittin & Kettani, Ossama & Cosset, Jean-Claude & Daouas, Mohamed, 1992. "An estimation model for country risk rating," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 583-593, December.
    3. Briance Mascarenhas & Ole Christian Sand, 1985. "Country-Risk Assessment System in Banks: Patterns and Performance," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 16(1), pages 19-35, March.
    4. Libby, Robert & Lewis, Barry L., 1982. "Human information processing research in accounting: The state of the art in 1982," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 231-285, July.
    5. Holt, Doris L. & Morrow, Paula C., 1992. "Risk assessment judgments of auditors and bank lenders: A comparative analysis of conformance to Bayes' theorem," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 549-559, August.
    6. Briance Mascarenhas & Ole Christian Sand, 1989. "Combination of Forecasts in the International Context: Predicting Debt Reschedulings," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 20(3), pages 539-552, September.
    7. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    8. John B Morgan, 1986. "A New Look at Debt Rescheduling Indicators and Models," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 17(2), pages 37-54, June.
    9. Frank, Charles Jr. & Cline, William R., 1971. "Measurement of debt servicing capacity: An application of discriminant analysis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 327-344, August.
    10. Saini, Krishan G. & Bates, Philip S., 1984. "A survey of the quantitative approaches to country risk analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 341-356, June.
    11. Jean-Claude Cosset & Jean Roy, 1991. "The Determinants of Country Risk Ratings," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 22(1), pages 135-142, March.
    12. Nicholas Sargen, 1977. "Economic indicators and country risk appraisal," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Fall, pages 19-35.
    13. Slovic, Paul, 1972. "Psychological Study of Human Judgment: Implications for Investment Decision-Making," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 27(4), pages 779-799, September.
    14. Hamer, Michelle M., 1983. "Failure prediction: Sensitivity of classification accuracy to alternative statistical methods and variable sets," Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 289-307.
    15. Pierre Dhonte, 1975. "Describing External Debt Situations: A Roll-over Approach (La description de l'endettement extérieur: l'approche du refinancement) (La refinanciación y su utilidad para la descripción de situacione," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(1), pages 159-186, March.
    16. Feder, Gershon & Ross, Knud Z, 1982. "Risk Assessments and Risk Premiums in the Eurodollar Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(3), pages 679-691, June.
    17. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    18. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard E., 1977. "A study of debt servicing capacity applying logit analysis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, February.
    19. Feder, Gershon & Just, Richard & Ross, Knud, 1981. "Projecting Debt Servicing Capacity of Developing Countries," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(5), pages 651-669, December.
    20. Schmidt, Reinhart, 1984. "Early warning of debt rescheduling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 357-370, June.
    21. Lee, Suk Hun, 1991. "Ability and willingness to service debt as explanation for commercial and official rescheduling cases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-27, February.
    22. Lloyd-Ellis, H. & Mckenzie, G. W. & Thomas, S. H., 1989. "Using country balance sheet data to predict debt rescheduling," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 173-177, December.
    23. Shanteau, James, 1989. "Cognitive heuristics and biases in behavioral auditing: Review, comments and observations," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 165-177, January.
    24. Lo, Andrew W., 1986. "Logit versus discriminant analysis : A specification test and application to corporate bankruptcies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 151-178, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2007. "Optimal design of early warning systems for sovereign debt crises," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 85-100.
    2. Peresetsky, Anatoly, 2009. "Models for the External Support Component of Moody's Bank Ratings," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 14(2), pages 3-23.
    3. Elena Kalotychou & Sotiris K. Staikouras, 2005. "The Banking Exposure to International Lending: Regional Differences or Common Fundamentals?," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(4), pages 187-214, November.
    4. Andras Viktor Szabo, 2022. "Credit Risk Modelling of Mortgage Loans in the Supervisory Stress Test of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 21(1), pages 56-94.
    5. Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 1997. "Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1721-1742, December.
    6. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou, 2004. "Forecasting sovereign default using panel models: A comparative analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 228, Society for Computational Economics.
    7. Sotiris K. Staikouras, 2005. "Multinational Banks, Credit Risk, and Financial Crises : A Qualitative Response Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 82-106, March.
    8. Islam, Roumeen & Montenegro, Claudio E., 2002. "What determines the quality of institutions?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2764, The World Bank.
    9. Anatoly Peresetsky, Alexander Karminsky, 2011. "Models for Moody’s Bank Ratings," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 88-110, April.
    10. Alin Opreana & Simona Vinerean & Diana Marieta Mihaiu & Liliana Barbu & Radu-Alexandru Șerban, 2023. "Fuzzy Analytic Network Process with Principal Component Analysis to Establish a Bank Performance Model under the Assumption of Country Risk," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-38, July.
    11. Kalotychou, Elena & Staikouras, Sotiris K., 2006. "An empirical investigation of the loan concentration risk in Latin America," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 363-384, October.
    12. Mitroussi, K. & Abouarghoub, W. & Haider, J.J. & Pettit, S.J. & Tigka, N., 2016. "Performance drivers of shipping loans: An empirical investigation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(P3), pages 438-452.
    13. Rodgers, Waymond & Hudson, Robert & Economou, Fotini, 2023. "Modelling credit and investment decisions based on AI algorithmic behavioral pathways," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    14. Tamás Kristóf, 2021. "Sovereign Default Forecasting in the Era of the COVID-19 Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    15. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2006. "Early warning systems for sovereign debt crises: The role of heterogeneity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 1420-1441, November.
    16. repec:zbw:bofitp:2008_017 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou, 2004. "Elements in the Design of an Early Warning System for Sovereign Default," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 231, Society for Computational Economics.
    18. Eriksson, Kent & Jonsson, Sara & Lindbergh, Jessica & Lindstrand, Angelika, 2014. "Modeling firm specific internationalization risk: An application to banks’ risk assessment in lending to firms that do international business," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1074-1085.
    19. Anatoly Peresetsky, Alexander Karminsky, 2011. "Models for Moody’s Bank Ratings," Frontiers in Finance and Economics, SKEMA Business School, vol. 8(1), pages 88-110, April.
    20. Aron, Janine, 2000. "Growth and Institutions: A Review of the Evidence," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 15(1), pages 99-135, February.

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