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Stock Market Mean Reversion and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle

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  • Michaelides, Alexander
  • Zhang, Yuxin

Abstract

We solve for optimal consumption and portfolio choice in a life-cycle model with short-sales and borrowing constraints; undiversifiable labor income risk; and a predictable, time-varying, equity premium and show that the investor pursues aggressive market timing strategies. Importantly, in the presence of stock market predictability, the model suggests that the conventional financial advice of reducing stock market exposure as retirement approaches is correct on average, but ignoring changing market information can lead to substantial welfare losses. Therefore, enhanced target-date funds (ETDFs) that condition on expected equity premia increase welfare relative to target-date funds (TDFs). Out-of-sample analysis supports these conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaelides, Alexander & Zhang, Yuxin, 2017. "Stock Market Mean Reversion and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(3), pages 1183-1209, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:52:y:2017:i:03:p:1183-1209_00
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Campanale Claudio & Fugazza Carolina, 2022. "Preference for Wealth and Life Cycle Portfolio Choice," Working papers 075, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    2. Fabio C. Bagliano & Carolina Fugazza & Giovanna Nicodano, 2017. "A Life-Cycle Model with Unemployment Traps," Working papers 041, Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (Dipartimento di Scienze Economico-Sociali e Matematico-Statistiche), University of Torino.
    3. Kraft, Holger & Munk, Claus & Weiss, Farina, 2019. "Predictors and portfolios over the life cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 1-27.
    4. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2024. "Life-cycle risk-taking with personal disaster risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PB), pages 378-396.
    5. Heo, Wookjae & Grable, John E. & Rabbani, Abed G., 2018. "A test of the relevant association between utility theory and subjective risk tolerance: Introducing the Profit-to-Willingness ratio," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 84-88.
    6. Chen, Guodong & Lee, Minjoon & Nam, Tong-yob, 2020. "Forced retirement risk and portfolio choice," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 293-315.
    7. Nazliben, K. Korhan & Rodríguez, Juan Carlos, 2018. "Permanent shocks, signal extraction, and portfolio selection," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-68.
    8. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Fugazza, Carolina & Nicodano, Giovanna, 2019. "Life-cycle portfolios, unemployment and human capital loss," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 325-340.
    9. Francisco Gomes & Alexander Michaelides & Yuxin Zhang, 2022. "Tactical Target Date Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 3047-3070, April.
    10. Michaelides, Alexander & Zhang, Yuxin, 2022. "Life-cycle portfolio choice with imperfect predictors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    11. Forsyth, Peter A., 2020. "Optimal dynamic asset allocation for DC plan accumulation/decumulation: Ambition-CVAR," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 230-245.
    12. Inkmann, Joachim, 2024. "Aggregate portfolio choice," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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