IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v122y2021ics0378426620302582.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systematic credit risk in securitised mortgage portfolios

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Yongwoong
  • Rösch, Daniel
  • Scheule, Harald

Abstract

This study analyses the level of systematic risk for US mortgage portfolio securitisations based on the variation of default rates which cannot be explained by observed deterministic factors. Systematic risk is decomposed into general systemic risk, rating-class-specific systematic risk and their covariance structure. General systematic risk sensitivities increase from lower rating classes to medium rating classes and decreases to higher rating classes. Rating-class-specific systematic risk shows an opposite pattern. The methodology provides for more accurate probability of default and Value-at-Risk forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2021. "Systematic credit risk in securitised mortgage portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:122:y:2021:i:c:s0378426620302582
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105996
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426620302582
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2020.105996?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rajan, Uday & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2015. "The failure of models that predict failure: Distance, incentives, and defaults," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 237-260.
    2. Peter Grundke, 2008. "Regulatory treatment of the double default effect under the New Basel Accord: how conservative is it?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 37-59, March.
    3. Gene Amromin & Anna L. Paulson, 2009. "Comparing patterns of default among prime and subprime mortgages," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 33(Q II), pages 18-37.
    4. André Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Business and default cycles for credit risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
    5. Gordy, Michael B. & Howells, Bradley, 2006. "Procyclicality in Basel II: Can we treat the disease without killing the patient?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 395-417, July.
    6. Azizpour, S & Giesecke, K. & Schwenkler, G., 2018. "Exploring the sources of default clustering," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 154-183.
    7. James F. Epperson & James B. Kau & Donald C. Keenan & Walter J. Muller, 1985. "Pricing Default Risk in Mortgages," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 13(3), pages 261-272, September.
    8. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    9. McNeil, Alexander J. & Wendin, Jonathan P., 2007. "Bayesian inference for generalized linear mixed models of portfolio credit risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 131-149, March.
    10. Michael B. Gordy & Erik Heitfield, 2010. "Small-Sample Estimation of Models of Portfolio Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Masaaki Kijima & Chiaki Hara & Keiichi Tanaka & Yukio Muromachi (ed.), Recent Advances In Financial Engineering 2009, chapter 2, pages 43-63, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Ronel Elul & Nicholas S. Souleles & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Dennis Glennon & Robert Hunt, 2010. "What "Triggers" Mortgage Default?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 490-494, May.
    12. Gordy, Michael B., 2003. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 199-232, July.
    13. Cowan, Adrian M. & Cowan, Charles D., 2004. "Default correlation: An empirical investigation of a subprime lender," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 753-771, April.
    14. Sanjiv R. Das & Darrell Duffie & Nikunj Kapadia & Leandro Saita, 2007. "Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults Are Correlated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(1), pages 93-117, February.
    15. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Negative equity and foreclosure: Theory and evidence," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 234-245, September.
    16. D Rösch & H Scheule, 2014. "Forecasting probabilities of default and loss rates given default in the presence of selection," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 65(3), pages 393-407, March.
    17. Andrea Sironi & Cristiano Zazzara, 2003. "The Basel Committee proposals for a new capital accord: implications for Italian banks," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(1), pages 99-126.
    18. Darrell Duffie & Andreas Eckner & Guillaume Horel & Leandro Saita, 2009. "Frailty Correlated Default," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2089-2123, October.
    19. Lopez, Jose A., 2004. "The empirical relationship between average asset correlation, firm probability of default, and asset size," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 265-283, April.
    20. Sudheer Chava & Robert A. Jarrow, 2008. "Bankruptcy Prediction with Industry Effects," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 21, pages 517-549, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    22. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd, 2011. "Modeling frailty-correlated defaults using many macroeconomic covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 312-325, June.
    23. Agarwal, Sumit & Chang, Yan & Yavas, Abdullah, 2012. "Adverse selection in mortgage securitization," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 640-660.
    24. Darrell Duffie & Rui Kan, 1996. "A Yield‐Factor Model Of Interest Rates," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 379-406, October.
    25. Michel Dietsch, 2004. "Should SME exposures be treated as retail or corporate exposures: a comparative analysis of probabilities of default and assets correlations in French and German SMEs," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/14164, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    26. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Bernd Schwaab, 2012. "Dynamic Factor Models With Macro, Frailty, and Industry Effects for U.S. Default Counts: The Credit Crisis of 2008," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 521-532, May.
    27. Jiménez, Gabriel & Mencía, Javier, 2009. "Modelling the distribution of credit losses with observable and latent factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 235-253, March.
    28. Harvey, Andrew C & Shephard, Neil, 1996. "Estimation of an Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Model for Asset Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 429-434, October.
    29. Dirk Tasche, 2005. "Measuring sectoral diversification in an asymptotic multi-factor framework," Papers physics/0505142, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2006.
    30. Dietsch, Michel & Petey, Joel, 2004. "Should SME exposures be treated as retail or corporate exposures? A comparative analysis of default probabilities and asset correlations in French and German SMEs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 773-788, April.
    31. Christopher Mayer & Karen Pence & Shane M. Sherlund, 2009. "The Rise in Mortgage Defaults," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 27-50, Winter.
    32. Gordy, Michael B., 2000. "A comparative anatomy of credit risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 119-149, January.
    33. Kau James B. & Keenan Donald C. & Kim Taewon, 1994. "Default Probabilities for Mortgages," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 278-296, May.
    34. Crook, Jonathan & Banasik, John, 2012. "Forecasting and explaining aggregate consumer credit delinquency behaviour," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 145-160.
    35. Paul S. Calem & James R. Follain, 2003. "The asset-correlation parameter in Basel II for mortgages on single-family residences," Basel II White Paper 5, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    36. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:831-868 is not listed on IDEAS
    37. Dorsey, Robert E. & Hu, Haixin & Mayer, Walter J. & Wang, Hui-chen, 2010. "Hedonic versus repeat-sales housing price indexes for measuring the recent boom-bust cycle," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 75-93, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cho, Yongbok & Lee, Yongwoong, 2022. "Asymmetric asset correlation in credit portfolios," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    2. Thi Mai Luong & Harald Scheule & Nitya Wanzare, 2023. "Impact of mortgage soft information in loan pricing on default prediction using machine learning," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 158-186, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2016. "Accuracy of mortgage portfolio risk forecasts during financial crises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 440-456.
    2. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2014. "Forecasting Mortgage Securitization Risk Under Systematic Risk and Parameter Uncertainty," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 563-586, September.
    3. Magdalena Pisa & Dennis Bams & Christian Wolff, 2012. "Modeling default correlation in a US retail loan portfolio," LSF Research Working Paper Series 12-19, Luxembourg School of Finance, University of Luxembourg.
    4. Dietsch, Michel & Düllmann, Klaus & Fraisse, Henri & Koziol, Philipp & Ott, Christine, 2016. "Support for the SME supporting factor: Multi-country empirical evidence on systematic risk factor for SME loans," Discussion Papers 45/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter, 2005. "Empirical credit cycles and capital buffer formation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 3159-3179, December.
    6. Giesecke, Kay & Schwenkler, Gustavo, 2018. "Filtered likelihood for point processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 33-53.
    7. Nguyen, Ha, 2023. "An empirical application of Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo to frailty correlated default models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 103-121.
    8. Do, Hung Xuan & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "Predicting loss severities for residential mortgage loans: A three-step selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 246-259.
    9. Duellmann, Klaus & Küll, Jonathan & Kunisch, Michael, 2010. "Estimating asset correlations from stock prices or default rates--Which method is superior?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2341-2357, November.
    10. Daniel Rösch & Harald Scheule, 2011. "Securitization rating performance and agency incentives," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 287-314, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Xing, Kai & Luo, Dan & Liu, Lanlan, 2023. "Macroeconomic conditions, corporate default, and default clustering," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    12. Annalisa Di Clemente, 2020. "Modeling Portfolio Credit Risk Taking into Account the Default Correlations Using a Copula Approach: Implementation to an Italian Loan Portfolio," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-24, June.
    13. Lee, Yongwoong & Poon, Ser-Huang, 2014. "Forecasting and decomposition of portfolio credit risk using macroeconomic and frailty factors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 69-92.
    14. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2008. "A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 510-525.
    15. Azizpour, S & Giesecke, K. & Schwenkler, G., 2018. "Exploring the sources of default clustering," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1), pages 154-183.
    16. Klaus Duellmann & Jonathan Küll & Michael Kunisch, 2010. "Estimating asset correlations from stock prices or default rates - which method is superior?," Post-Print hal-00736734, HAL.
    17. Caballero, Diego & Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd & Zhang, Xin, 2020. "Risk endogeneity at the lender/investor-of-last-resort," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 283-297.
    18. Düllmann, Klaus & Kunisch, Michael & Küll, Jonathan, 2008. "Estimating asset correlations from stock prices or default rates: which method is superior?," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2008,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Sumit Agarwal & Itzhak Ben-David & Vincent Yao, 2015. "Collateral Valuation and Borrower Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Residential Real Estate Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(9), pages 2220-2240, September.
    20. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset correlation; Diversification; Mortgage portfolio; Probability of default; Rating classes; Securitisation; State space model; Systematic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:122:y:2021:i:c:s0378426620302582. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.