IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedhep/y2009iqiip18-37nv.33no.2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparing patterns of default among prime and subprime mortgages

Author

Abstract

This article compares default patterns among prime and subprime mortgages, analyzes the factors correlated with default, and examines how forecasts of defaults are affected by alternative assumptions about trends in home prices. The authors find that extremely pessimistic forecasts of home price appreciation could have generated predictions of subprime defaults that were closer to the actual default experience for loans originated in 2006 and 2007. However, for prime loans one would have also had to anticipate that defaults would become much more sensitive to home prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Gene Amromin & Anna L. Paulson, 2009. "Comparing patterns of default among prime and subprime mortgages," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 33(Q II), pages 18-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2009:i:qii:p:18-37:n:v.33no.2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.chicagofed.org/digital_assets/publications/economic_perspectives/2009/ep_2qtr2009_part2_amromin_paulson.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Foote, Christopher L. & Gerardi, Kristopher & Goette, Lorenz & Willen, Paul S., 2008. "Just the facts: An initial analysis of subprime's role in the housing crisis," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 291-305, December.
    2. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    3. Kristopher Gerardi & Adam Hale Shapiro & Paul S. Willen, 2007. "Subprime outcomes: risky mortgages, homeownership experiences, and foreclosures," Working Papers 07-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    4. Giovanni Dell’ariccia & Deniz Igan & Luc Laeven, 2012. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence from the Subprime Mortgage Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44, pages 367-384, March.
    5. Kristopher Gerardi & Andreas Lehnert & Shane M. Sherlund & Paul Willen, 2008. "Making Sense of the Subprime Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 69-159.
    6. Souphala Chomsisengphet & Anthony Pennington-Cross, 2006. "The evolution of the subprime mortgage market," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Jan), pages 31-56.
    7. Danielle DiMartino & John V. Duca, 2007. "The rise and fall of subprime mortgages," Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, vol. 2(nov).
    8. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Benjamin J. Keys & Tanmoy Mukherjee & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2010. "Did Securitization Lead to Lax Screening? Evidence from Subprime Loans," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 307-362.
    10. Charles W. Calomiris, 2008. "The subprime turmoil: what’s old, what’s new, and what’s next," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 19-110.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Calabrese, Raffaella & Dombrowski, Timothy & Mandel, Antoine & Pace, R. Kelley & Zanin, Luca, 2024. "Impacts of extreme weather events on mortgage risks and their evolution under climate change: A case study on Florida," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 314(1), pages 377-392.
    2. Demyanyk, Yuliya, 2017. "The impact of missed payments and foreclosures on credit scores," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 108-119.
    3. Marius Ascheberg & Robert A. Jarrow & Holger Kraft & Yildiray Yildirim, 2014. "Government Policies, Residential Mortgage Defaults and the Boom and Bust Cycle of Housing Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 627-661, September.
    4. Do, Hung Xuan & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2018. "Predicting loss severities for residential mortgage loans: A three-step selection approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 246-259.
    5. Andrew R. Sanderford & George A. Overstreet & Peter A. Beling & Kanshukan Rajaratnam, 2015. "Energy-efficient homes and mortgage risk: crossing the chasm at last?," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(1), pages 157-168, March.
    6. Yaseen Ghulam & Sophie Hill, 2017. "Distinguishing between Good and Bad Subprime Auto Loans Borrowers: The Role of Demographic, Region and Loan Characteristics," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 10, pages 49-62, November.
    7. Kyungsoon Wang, 2019. "Housing market resilience: Neighbourhood and metropolitan factors explaining resilience before and after the US housing crisis," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 56(13), pages 2688-2708, October.
    8. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2021. "Systematic credit risk in securitised mortgage portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    9. Yaseen Ghulam & Kamini Dhruva & Sana Naseem & Sophie Hill, 2018. "The Interaction of Borrower and Loan Characteristics in Predicting Risks of Subprime Automobile Loans," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(3), pages 1-21, September.
    10. Michael Thornley, 2016. "Financial stability risks from housing market cycles," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 79, pages 1-16, July.
    11. Yamout, Nadine, 2023. "Securitization of subprime credit and the propagation of housing shocks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 125.
    12. Lee, Yongwoong & Rösch, Daniel & Scheule, Harald, 2016. "Accuracy of mortgage portfolio risk forecasts during financial crises," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 440-456.
    13. Thi Mai Luong & Harald Scheule & Nitya Wanzare, 2023. "Impact of mortgage soft information in loan pricing on default prediction using machine learning," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 158-186, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Khandani, Amir E. & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C., 2013. "Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 29-45.
    2. W. Scott Frame & Lawrence J. White, 2009. "Technological change, financial innovation, and diffusion in banking," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2009-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C. & Lyubimov, Constantine & Carlos Slawson, V., 2011. "Subprime mortgage default," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2-3), pages 75-87, September.
    4. Deniz Igan & Prachi Mishra & Thierry Tressel, 2012. "A Fistful of Dollars: Lobbying and the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 195-230.
    5. Daniel García, 2020. "Employment in the Great Recession: How Important Were Household Credit Supply Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 165-203, February.
    6. Patrick Bajari & Chenghuan Sean Chu & Minjung Park, 2008. "An Empirical Model of Subprime Mortgage Default From 2000 to 2007," NBER Working Papers 14625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. William Lang & Julapa Jagtiani, 2010. "The Mortgage and Financial Crises: The Role of Credit Risk Management and Corporate Governance," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 38(2), pages 123-144, June.
    8. Seda Durguner, 2021. "Relaxed Credit Standards in the U.S. Housing Boom: Changes in Risk Characteristics of Mortgage Recipients," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 208-254, March.
    9. Agatha M. Poroshina, 2014. "Credit Risk Modeling Of Residential Mortgage Lending In Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 30/FE/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    10. Fernando Ferreira & Joseph Gyourko, 2011. "Anatomy of the Beginning of the Housing Boom: U.S. Neighborhoods and Metropolitan Areas, 1993-2009," NBER Working Papers 17374, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Thomas Schelkle, 2018. "Mortgage Default during the U.S. Mortgage Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1101-1137, September.
    12. Nadauld, Taylor D. & Sherlund, Shane M., 2009. "The Role of the Securitization Process in the Expansion of Subprime Credit," Working Paper Series 2009-9, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    13. Patrick Honohan, 2009. "Bank Failures: The Limitations of Risk Modeling," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Philipp Hartmann & George G Kaufman (ed.), The First Credit Market Turmoil Of The 21st Century Implications for Public Policy, chapter 8, pages 103-123, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Daniel I. García, 2018. "Employment in the Great Recession : How Important Were Household Credit Supply Shocks?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Claudine Gartenberg, 2014. "Do Parents Matter? Effects of Lender Affiliation Through the Mortgage Boom and Bust," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(11), pages 2776-2793, November.
    16. Pagès, Henri, 2013. "Bank monitoring incentives and optimal ABS," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 30-54.
    17. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kudlyak, Marianna & Mondragon, John, 2014. "Does Greater Inequality Lead to More Household Borrowing? New Evidence from Household Data," IZA Discussion Papers 7910, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Nadauld, Taylor D. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2012. "Did securitization affect the cost of corporate debt?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(2), pages 332-352.
    19. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit & Vig, Vikrant, 2010. "Securitization and distressed loan renegotiation: Evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 369-397, September.
    20. Hanming Fang & You Suk Kim & Wenli Li, 2015. "The Dynamics of Adjustable-Rate Subprime Mortgage Default: A Structural Estimation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-114, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2009:i:qii:p:18-37:n:v.33no.2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.