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Estimating time-varying currency betas with contagion: New evidence from developed and emerging financial markets

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  • Long, Ling
  • Tsui, Albert K.
  • Zhang, Zhaoyong

Abstract

This paper examines the conditional time-varying currency betas from five developed and six emerging financial markets with contagion and spillover effects. We employ a trivariate asymmetric BEKK-type GARCH-in-Mean (MGARCH-M) approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance and covariance of returns of stock market index, the world market portfolio and bilateral exchange rate between the US dollar and the local currency. The results show that the world market and currency risks are not only priced in the stock markets, but also time-varying. It is found that currency betas are much more volatile than the world market betas, and currency betas in the emerging markets are more volatile than those in the developed markets. We find empirical evidence of contagion effect and spillovers between stock market and foreign exchange market during the recent global financial crisis, and the effect is stronger in the emerging markets than that in the developed markets. Two applications are provided to illustrate the usefulness of time-varying currency betas.

Suggested Citation

  • Long, Ling & Tsui, Albert K. & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2014. "Estimating time-varying currency betas with contagion: New evidence from developed and emerging financial markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 10-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:10-24
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2014.02.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Chikashi Tsuji, 2017. "How Can We Interpret the Estimates of the Full BEKK Model with Asymmetry? The Case of French and German Stock Returns," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(2), pages 342-351, December.
    3. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2018. "Return transmission and asymmetric volatility spillovers between oil futures and oil equities: New DCC-MEGARCH analyses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 167-185.
    4. David E. Allen & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Theoretical and Empirical Differences between Diagonal and Full BEKK for Risk Management," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-19, June.
    5. Tsuji, Chikashi, 2018. "New DCC analyses of return transmission, volatility spillovers, and optimal hedging among oil futures and oil equities in oil-producing countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 1202-1217.
    6. Mokni, Khaled & Mansouri, Faysal, 2017. "Conditional dependence between international stock markets: A long memory GARCH-copula model approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 42, pages 116-131.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-varying currency betas; MGARCH; ICAPM; Contagion; Long memory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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