IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/64357.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure in Indonesian Industry Sectors

Author

Listed:
  • Lestano, Lestano

Abstract

This paper investigates asymmetric exchange rate exposure on Indonesia industry’s stock returns in both (non)linear specifications and different setting in exchange rate regimes and sub-sample periods using the EGARCH model. The results reveal that negative exchange rate exposure dominates over positive exposure in the linear exposure setting, but there is no dominance sign in nonlinear exposure effect specification. The negative exchange rate exposure is more pronounced in the episodes of Asian and Global financial crisis and largely reduces in tranquility period. In relation to exchange rate arrangements, many industries experience statistically significant negative exposure to the US dollar with managed floating exchange rate regime than flexible regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Lestano, Lestano, 2015. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure in Indonesian Industry Sectors," MPRA Paper 64357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64357
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/64357/1/MPRA_paper_64357.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2013. "On graduation from fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 32-47.
    2. Lin, Chien-Hsiu, 2011. "Exchange rate exposure in the Asian emerging markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 224-238, October.
    3. Nagayasu, Jun, 2001. "Currency crisis and contagion: evidence from exchange rates and sectoral stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 529-546.
    4. Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992. "No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
    5. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    6. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Linda L. Tesar, 2001. "A Reexamination of Exchange-Rate Exposure," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 396-399, May.
    7. Taimur Baig & Ilan Goldfajn, 1999. "Financial Market Contagion in the Asian Crisis," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-3.
    8. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
    9. Bredin, Don & Hyde, Stuart, 2011. "Investigating sources of unanticipated exposure in industry stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1128-1142, May.
    10. Fraser, Steve P. & Pantzalis, Christos, 2004. "Foreign exchange rate exposure of US multinational corporations: a firm-specific approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 261-281, July.
    11. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-351, June.
    12. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    13. Gordon M. Bodnar & Bernard Dumas & Richard C. Marston, 2002. "Pass‐through and Exposure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 199-231, February.
    14. Doidge, Craig & Griffin, John & Williamson, Rohan, 2006. "Measuring the economic importance of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 550-576, October.
    15. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2007. "Modeling time variation and asymmetry in foreign exchange exposure," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 61-74, February.
    16. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    17. Bank for International Settlements, 2010. "The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 52.
    18. Aysun, Uluc & Guldi, Melanie, 2011. "Exchange rate exposure: A nonparametric approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 321-337.
    19. Dewenter, Kathryn L. & Higgins, Robert C. & Simin, Timothy T., 2005. "Can event study methods solve the currency exposure puzzle?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 119-144, March.
    20. Bekaert, Geert & Wu, Guojun, 2000. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42.
    21. Bartram, Sohnke M., 2004. "Linear and nonlinear foreign exchange rate exposures of German nonfinancial corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 673-699, June.
    22. Chaieb, Ines & Mazzotta, Stefano, 2013. "Unconditional and conditional exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 781-808.
    23. Koutmos, Gregory & Lee, Unro & Theodossiu, Panayiotis, 1994. "Time-varying betas and volatility persistence in International Stock markets," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 101-112, May.
    24. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Minton, Bernadette A., 2010. "Resolving the exposure puzzle: The many facets of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 148-173, February.
    25. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Tesar, Linda L., 2006. "Exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 188-218, January.
    26. Baldwin, Richard, 1988. "Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-785, September.
    27. Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Molyneux, Philip & Staikouras, Sotiris K. & Wilson, John O.S. & Zhao, Gang, 2013. "Exchange rate risk and the equity performance of financial intermediaries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 271-282.
    28. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Asymmetric foreign exchange risk exposure: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 495-518, October.
    29. Kolari, James W. & Moorman, Ted C. & Sorescu, Sorin M., 2008. "Foreign exchange risk and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1074-1097, November.
    30. Knetter, Michael M., 1994. "Is export price adjustment asymmetric?: evaluating the market share and marketing bottlenecks hypotheses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 55-70, February.
    31. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    32. François Longin & Bruno Solnik, 2001. "Extreme Correlation of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 649-676, April.
    33. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Dufey, Gunter & Frenkel, Michael R., 2005. "A primer on the exposure of non-financial corporations to foreign exchange rate risk," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(4-5), pages 394-413, October.
    34. George Soros, 1999. "The International Financial Crisis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 58-76, March.
    35. Hagelin, Niclas & Pramborg, Bengt, 2006. "Empirical evidence concerning incentives to hedge transaction and translation exposures," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 142-159, April.
    36. Bodnar, Gordon M. & Gentry, William M., 1993. "Exchange rate exposure and industry characteristics: evidence from Canada, Japan, and the USA," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 29-45, February.
    37. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Foreign exchange risk exposure: Survey and suggestions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 385-410, October.
    38. Ang, Andrew & Chen, Joseph, 2002. "Asymmetric correlations of equity portfolios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 443-494, March.
    39. Parsley, David C. & Popper, Helen A., 2006. "Exchange rate pegs and foreign exchange exposure in East and South East Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 992-1009, October.
    40. Bartov, Eli & Bodnar, Gordon M, 1994. "Firm Valuation, Earnings Expectations, and the Exchange-Rate Exposure Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1755-1785, December.
    41. Andrew Filardo & Jason George & Mico Loretan & Guonan Ma & Anella Munro & Ilhyock Shim & Philip Wooldridge & James Yetman & Haibin Zhu, 2010. "The international financial crisis: timeline, impact and policy responses in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 21-82, Bank for International Settlements.
    42. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2007. "Asian foreign exchange risk exposure," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 16-37, March.
    43. Conrad, Jennifer & Gultekin, Mustafa N & Kaul, Gautam, 1991. "Asymmetric Predictability of Conditional Variances," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 597-622.
    44. Apergis, Nicholas & Artikis, Panagiotis & Sorros, John, 2011. "Asset pricing and foreign exchange risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 308-328, September.
    45. Chue, Timothy K. & Cook, David, 2008. "Emerging market exchange rate exposure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1349-1362, July.
    46. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    47. Allayannis, George & Ihrig, Jane, 2001. "Exposure and Markups," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 805-835.
    48. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-345, July.
    49. Koutmos, Gregory & Martin, Anna D., 2003. "Asymmetric exchange rate exposure: theory and evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 365-383, June.
    50. Griffin, John M & Stulz, Rene M, 2001. "International Competition and Exchange Rate Shocks: A Cross-Country Industry Analysis of Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 215-241.
    51. Shapiro, Alan C, 1975. "Exchange Rate Changes, Inflation, and the Value of the Multinational Corporation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 30(2), pages 485-502, May.
    52. Mahesh Pritamani & Dilip Shome & Vijay Singal, 2005. "Exchange Rate Exposure of Exporting and Importing Firms," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 17(3), pages 87-94, June.
    53. Bruce Kogut & Nalin Kulatilaka, 1994. "Operating Flexibility, Global Manufacturing, and the Option Value of a Multinational Network," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(1), pages 123-139, January.
    54. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Exchange rate risk in the US stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-150.
    55. Jayasinghe, Prabhath & Tsui, Albert K., 2008. "Exchange rate exposure of sectoral returns and volatilities: Evidence from Japanese industrial sectors," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 639-660, December.
    56. Aline Muller & Willem F. C. Verschoor, 2006. "European Foreign Exchange Risk Exposure," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(2), pages 195-220, March.
    57. Marston, Richard C., 2001. "The effects of industry structure on economic exposure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 149-164, April.
    58. Priestley, Richard & Odegaard, Bernt Arne, 2007. "Linear and nonlinear exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1016-1037, October.
    59. Herman Kamil, 2012. "How Do Exchange Rate Regimes Affect Firms' Incentives to Hedge Currency Risk? Micro Evidence for Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2012/069, International Monetary Fund.
    60. Agyei-Ampomah, Sam & Mazouz, Khelifa & Yin, Shuxing, 2013. "The foreign exchange exposure of UK non-financial firms: A comparison of market-based methodologies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 251-260.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nurul Anisak & Azhar Mohamad, 2020. "Foreign Exchange Exposure of Indonesian Listed Firms," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(4), pages 918-936, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Asif, Raheel & Frömmel, Michael, 2022. "Exchange rate exposure for exporting and domestic firms in central and Eastern Europe," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PA).
    2. Aysun, Uluc & Guldi, Melanie, 2011. "Exchange rate exposure: A nonparametric approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 321-337.
    3. Krapl, Alain A., 2017. "Asymmetric foreign exchange cash flow exposure: A firm-level analysis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 48-72.
    4. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Asymmetric foreign exchange risk exposure: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 495-518, October.
    5. Ekta Sikarwar & Ganesh Kumar Nidugala, 2018. "Effect of Central Bank Intervention in Estimating Exchange Rate Exposure: Evidence from an Emerging Market," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 17(1), pages 60-95, April.
    6. Mojisola Olugbode & Ahmed El-Masry & John Pointon, 2014. "Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Exposure of UK Industries Using First-order Autoregressive Exponential GARCH-in-mean (EGARCH-M) Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(4), pages 409-464, July.
    7. Hsu, Chih-Chiang & Yau, Ruey & Wu, Jyun-Yi, 2009. "Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure and Industry Characteristics : Evidence from Japanese Data," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 50(1), pages 57-69, June.
    8. Sunghee Choi & Md. Abdus Salam & Ki-Dong Lee, 2019. "The Nature of Exchange Rate Movements and Exchange Rate Exposure: The Bangladesh Case," Journal of South Asian Development, , vol. 14(2), pages 180-222, August.
    9. Uluc Aysun & Melanie Guldi, 2008. "Increasing Derivatives Market Activity in Emerging Markets and Exchange Rate Exposure," Working papers 2008-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2008.
    10. Chaieb, Ines & Mazzotta, Stefano, 2013. "Unconditional and conditional exchange rate exposure," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 781-808.
    11. Ye, Min & Hutson, Elaine & Muckley, Cal, 2014. "Exchange rate regimes and foreign exchange exposure: The case of emerging market firms," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 156-182.
    12. Muller, Aline & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2006. "Foreign exchange risk exposure: Survey and suggestions," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 385-410, October.
    13. Agyei-Ampomah, Sam & Mazouz, Khelifa & Yin, Shuxing, 2013. "The foreign exchange exposure of UK non-financial firms: A comparison of market-based methodologies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 251-260.
    14. Belghitar, Yacine & Clark, Ephraim & Mefteh, Salma, 2013. "Foreign currency derivative use and shareholder value," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 283-293.
    15. Akay, Gokhan H. & Cifter, Atilla, 2014. "Exchange rate exposure at the firm and industry levels: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 426-434.
    16. Sikarwar, Ekta, 2020. "Forex interventions and exchange rate exposure: Evidence from emerging market firms," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 69-81.
    17. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Minton, Bernadette A., 2010. "Resolving the exposure puzzle: The many facets of exchange rate exposure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(2), pages 148-173, February.
    18. Belghitar, Yacine & Clark, Ephraim & Dropsy, Vincent & Mefteh-Wali, Salma, 2021. "The effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the performance of small and medium sized enterprises: Implications for Brexit," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 399-410.
    19. Du, Ding, 2014. "Persistent exchange-rate movements and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 36-53.
    20. Júnior, José L. R., 2008. "Exchange Rate Exposure, Foreign Currency Debt and the Use of Derivatives: Evidence from Brazil," Insper Working Papers wpe_141, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    exchange rate exposure; industry-level exposure; exponential GARCH-type model; Indonesia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:64357. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.