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The Stochastic Structure of the Time–Varying Beta: Evidence from UK Companies

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  • Taufiq Choudhry

Abstract

The stochastic structure of time–varying betas from 15 companies in the UK is investigated. Time–varying betas are estimated by means of the bivariate MA–GARCH model. The stochastic structure is investigated by means of two fractional integration tests, the Geweke and Porter–Hudak and the Robinson tests, and a structural–break–oriented unit root test. Results show that time–varying betas are mean–reverting but only few have a long memory and thus are mean–reverting at a slow rate. This result is further backed by the structural break unit root test. These results contradict earlier studies, which fail to find a stationary beta. Stationary betas may imply that stock returns may be forecast in the long run.

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  • Taufiq Choudhry, 2002. "The Stochastic Structure of the Time–Varying Beta: Evidence from UK Companies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(6), pages 768-791, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:manchs:v:70:y:2002:i:6:p:768-791
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9957.00324
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    Cited by:

    1. Anders Johansson, 2009. "An analysis of dynamic risk in the Greater China equity markets," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 299-320.
    2. Shyh-Wei Chen & Nai-Chuan Huang, 2007. "Estimates of the ICAPM with regime-switching betas: evidence from four pacific rim economies," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 313-327.
    3. Jahangir Sultan & Mohammad Hasan, 2008. "The effectiveness of dynamic hedging: evidence from selected European stock index futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 469-488.
    4. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2007. "Co-movement in the price of risk of aggregate equity markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 256-271, September.
    5. Ramaprasad Bhar, 2010. "Stochastic Filtering with Applications in Finance," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 7736, August.
    6. Taufiq Choudhry & Ranadeva Jayasekera, 2015. "Level of efficiency in the UK equity market: empirical study of the effects of the global financial crisis," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 213-242, February.
    7. Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2006. "Market Risk in Demutualized Self-Listed Stock Exchanges: An International Analysis of Selected Time-Varying Betas," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 239-257.
    8. Choudhry, Taufiq & Jayasekera, Ranadeva, 2014. "Market efficiency during the global financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PB), pages 299-318.
    9. Long, Ling & Tsui, Albert K. & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2014. "Estimating time-varying currency betas with contagion: New evidence from developed and emerging financial markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 10-24.
    10. Jayasinghe, Prabhath & Tsui, Albert K. & Zhang, Zhaoyong, 2014. "New estimates of time-varying currency betas: A trivariate BEKK approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 128-139.

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