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Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects

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  • Athukorala, Prema-chandra

Abstract

Over the past four decades merchandise trade of developing Asian economies (DAEs) has grown at a much faster rate than growth in world trade, with a distinct intra-regional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the region's economic landscape, with China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly centre within regional production networks. According to the projections made using the standard gravity model of international trade, total real non-oil trade of DAEs would increase at an annual rate of 8.2 percent during the next three decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries’ rates to the regional average. The share of intra-regional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53 percent in 2010 to 58 percent in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4 percent and 74.4 percent between these two years.

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  • Athukorala, Prema-chandra, 2012. "Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 150-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:2:p:150-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.01.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Sithanonxay Suvannaphakdy & Chris Czerkawaski & Toshihisa Toyoda, 2013. "Potential Impacts Of Regional Trade Enlargement In East Asia On Laos' Trade," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 85-110, September.
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    9. Witada Anukoonwattaka, 2013. "International Production Sharing and Exchange Rates of Asian Countries," Studies in Trade and Investment 80, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
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    13. Sapkota, Jeet Bahadur & Shuto, Motoko, 2016. "Is Pan-Asian Economic Integration Moving Forward? Evidence from Regional Trade Statistics," MPRA Paper 106075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu & Nagendra Shrestha & Shajuan Zhang, 2016. "Industry-specific exchange rate volatility and intermediate goods trade in Asia," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(1), pages 89-109, February.
    15. Tanrattanaphong, Borworn & Hu, Baiding & Gan, Christopher, 2020. "The impacts of value chain upgrading on the export of processed food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade patterns; Developing Asian countries; Global production networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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