IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/japwor/v24y2012i2p150-162.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Athukorala, Prema-chandra

Abstract

Over the past four decades merchandise trade of developing Asian economies (DAEs) has grown at a much faster rate than growth in world trade, with a distinct intra-regional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the region's economic landscape, with China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly centre within regional production networks. According to the projections made using the standard gravity model of international trade, total real non-oil trade of DAEs would increase at an annual rate of 8.2 percent during the next three decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries’ rates to the regional average. The share of intra-regional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53 percent in 2010 to 58 percent in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4 percent and 74.4 percent between these two years.

Suggested Citation

  • Athukorala, Prema-chandra, 2012. "Asian trade flows: Trends, patterns and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 150-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:2:p:150-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.01.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0922142512000138
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.japwor.2012.01.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard E. Baldwin, 2011. "Multilateralising Regionalism: Spaghetti Bowls as Building Blocks on the Path to Global Free Trade," Chapters, in: Miroslav N. Jovanović (ed.), International Handbook on the Economics of Integration, Volume I, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Soloaga, Isidro & Alan Wintersb, L., 2001. "Regionalism in the nineties: what effect on trade?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    3. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2009. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding‐Out Fear Warranted?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, February.
    4. Romain Wacziarg & Karen Horn Welch, 2008. "Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 22(2), pages 187-231, June.
    5. Richard E. Baldwin, 2006. "Multilateralising Regionalism: Spaghetti Bowls as Building Blocs on the Path to Global Free Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(11), pages 1451-1518, November.
    6. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2011. "Production Networks and Trade Patterns in East Asia: Regionalization or Globalization?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(1), pages 65-95, Winter/Sp.
    7. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
    8. Lee, Jong-Wha & Hong, Kiseok, 2012. "Economic growth in Asia: Determinants and prospects," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 101-113.
    9. Ng, Francis & Yeats, Alexander, 2003. "Major trade trends in East Asia : what are their implications for regional cooperation and growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3084, The World Bank.
    10. David Greenaway & Aruneema Mahabir & Chris Milner, 2010. "Has China Displaced Other Asian Countries’ Exports?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Greenaway & Chris Milner & Shujie Yao (ed.), China and the World Economy, chapter 4, pages 60-90, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. van Bergeijk,Peter A. G. & Brakman,Steven (ed.), 2010. "The Gravity Model in International Trade," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521196154, January.
    12. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Archanun Kohpaiboon, 2011. "Australia-Thailand Trade: Has the FTA Made a Difference?," Departmental Working Papers 2011-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    13. Paul Krugman, 1995. "Growing World Trade: Causes and Consequences," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 327-377.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Esquivias, Miguel Angel & Purwono, Rudi & Sugiharti, Lilik & Heriqbaldi, Unggul & Handoyo, Rossanto Dwi, 2020. "Value Chains, Production Networks and Regional Integration: The Case of Indonesia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 54(1), pages 135-151.
    2. C. Veeramani & Prachi Gupta, 2014. "Extensive and Intensive Margins of India's Exports: Comparison with China," Working Papers id:5808, eSocialSciences.
    3. Nilanjan Banik & Khanindra Ch. Das, 2014. "The Location Substitution Effect: Does it Apply for China?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 15(1), pages 59-75, March.
    4. Miguel Angel Esquivias Padilla, & Dyah Wulan Sari, & Rossanto Dwi Handoyo, 2017. "Formation of production networks in ASEAN: Measuring the real value-added and identifying the role of ASEAN countries in the world supply chains," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 13(2), pages 237-255, May.
    5. Sithanonxay Suvannaphakdy & Chris Czerkawaski & Toshihisa Toyoda, 2013. "Potential Impacts Of Regional Trade Enlargement In East Asia On Laos' Trade," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 85-110, September.
    6. Afees Salisu & Idris Ademuyiwa, 2012. "Trade creation and trade diversion in West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ)," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(4), pages 3071-3081.
    7. Richard Baldwin & Toshihiro Okubo, 2014. "Networked FDI: Sales and Sourcing Patterns of Japanese Foreign Affiliates," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(8), pages 1051-1080, August.
    8. Choorikkad Veeramani & Lakshmi Aerath & Prachi Gupta, 2018. "Intensive and extensive margins of exports: What can India learn from China?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 1196-1222, May.
    9. Witada Anukoonwattaka, 2013. "International Production Sharing and Exchange Rates of Asian Countries," Studies in Trade and Investment 80, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    10. Sithanonxay Suvannaphakdy & Hsiao Chink Tang & Alisa DiCaprio, 2016. "Assessing the trade impacts of the ASEAN + 6 FTA for Lao PDR," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 30(2), pages 72-89, November.
    11. Baak, SaangJoon, 2014. "Do Chinese and Korean products compete in the Japanese market? An investigation of machinery exports," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 256-271.
    12. C. Veeramani, 2019. "Fragmentation Trade and Vertical Specialisation: How Does South Asia Compare with China," Journal of Asian Economic Integration, , vol. 1(1), pages 97-128, April.
    13. Sapkota, Jeet Bahadur & Shuto, Motoko, 2016. "Is Pan-Asian Economic Integration Moving Forward? Evidence from Regional Trade Statistics," MPRA Paper 106075, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Paul De Grauwe & Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato & Junko Shimizu & Nagendra Shrestha & Shajuan Zhang, 2016. "Industry-specific exchange rate volatility and intermediate goods trade in Asia," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(1), pages 89-109, February.
    15. Tanrattanaphong, Borworn & Hu, Baiding & Gan, Christopher, 2020. "The impacts of value chain upgrading on the export of processed food," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    16. C. Veeramani & Garima Dhir, 2019. "Reaping gains from global production sharing: Domestic value addition and job creation by Indian exports," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-024, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    17. Suvannaphakdy, Sithanonxay & Tang, Hsiao Chink & DiCaprio, Alisa, 2014. "Assessing the trade impacts of the ASEAN+6 FTA : the case of Lao People’s Democratic Republic," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 126, Asian Development Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Hal Hill, 2010. "Asian trade: long-term patterns and key policy issues," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 24(2), pages 52-82, November.
    2. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Siong-Hook, Law & Tze-Haw, Chan, 2015. "The impact of the Renminbi real exchange rate on ASEAN disaggregated exports to China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 253-259.
    3. Prema-Chandra Athukorala, 2011. "Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns and Projections," Departmental Working Papers 2011-05, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    4. Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Yamashita, Nobuaki, 2006. "Production fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 233-256, December.
    5. Soumyananda Dinda, 2014. "China integrates Asia with the world: an empirical study," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 70-89, May.
    6. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2011. "Global Economic Crisis: Enter the Dragon," MPRA Paper 93855, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    7. Dinda, Soumyananda, 2011. "China’s Trade in Asia and the World: Long run Relation with Short run Dynamics," MPRA Paper 30664, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 May 2011.
    8. Fukunari Kimura & Ayako Obashi, 2016. "Production Networks in East Asia: What We Know So Far," ADB Institute Series on Development Economics, in: Ganeshan Wignaraja (ed.), Production Networks and Enterprises in East Asia, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 33-64, Springer.
    9. Mia Mikic & Mochamad Pasha (ed.), 2011. "Fighting Irrelevance: The Role of Regional Trade Agreements in International Production Networks in Asia," STUDIES IN TRADE AND INVESTMENT, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number tipub2597, April.
    10. Ganeshan Wignaraja, 2013. "Regional Trade Agreements and Enterprises in Southeast Asia," Trade Working Papers 23718, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    11. Yoke Fong Kong & Richard Kneller, 2016. "Measuring the Impact of China's Export Growth on its Asian Neighbours," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 195-220, February.
    12. Christian Elleby & Wusheng Yu & Qian Yu, 2018. "The Chinese Export Displacement Effect Revisited," IFRO Working Paper 2018/02, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
    13. Ramesh C Paudel, 2014. "Export performance in developing countries: A comparative perspective," Departmental Working Papers 2014-26, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    14. Peter E Robertson & Jessica Y Xu, 2010. "In China's Wake: Has Asia Gained From China's Growth?," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 10-15, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    15. Mohd Rosli, 2013. "Book Review: Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) Access to Finance in Selected East Asian Economies, by Charlies Harvie, Sothea Oum and Dionisius A. Narjoko, (eds), ERIA Research Project Report 2010-1," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 5(2), pages 159-160, July.
    16. Tze-Haw Chan & Hooi Hooi Lean & Chee-Wooi Hooy, 2014. "A macro assessment of China effects on Malaysian exports and trade balances," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(1), pages 18-37, January.
    17. Guillaume Daudin & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2011. "Who produces for whom in the world economy?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 44(4), pages 1403-1437, November.
    18. Guillaume Daudin & Christine Rifflart & Danielle Schweisguth, 2008. "Value-Added Trade and Regionalization. GTAP Eleventh Annual Conference 'Future of Global Economy', Helsinki, Finland," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01065996, HAL.
    19. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2009. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding‐Out Fear Warranted?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, February.
    20. Débora Bellucci Módolo & Celio Hiratuka, 2017. "The impact of Chinese competition on third markets: An analysis by region and technological category," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 35(6), pages 797-821, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade patterns; Developing Asian countries; Global production networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:2:p:150-162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.