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Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns, and Projections

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  • Athukorala, Prema-chandra

    (Australian National University)

Abstract

This paper provides trade flow projections for major Asian developing economies (ADEs) up to 2030 against the backdrop of an in-depth analysis of policy shifts and trade patterns over the past 4 decades. Merchandise trade of ADEs has grown at a much faster rate in the global context, with a distinct intraregional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the economic landscape of the region, with the People's Republic of China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly center within the regional production networks. According to the projections made within the standard gravity modelling framework, total real nonoil trade of ADEs would increase at an average annual rate of 8.2 during the next 2 decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries' rates to the regional average. The share of intraregional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53% in 2010 to 58% in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4% and 74.4% between these 2 years. These predictions need to be treated with caution as they are based on the assumption that the trade structure pertaining to the estimation period will remain unchanged in the next 2 decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Athukorala, Prema-chandra, 2011. "Asian Trade Flows: Trends, Patterns, and Projections," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 241, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0241
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2009. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding‐Out Fear Warranted?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, February.
    2. Fukunari KIMURA, 2006. "International Production and Distribution Networks in East Asia: Eighteen Facts, Mechanics, and Policy Implications," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 1(2), pages 326-344, December.
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    9. van Bergeijk,Peter A. G. & Brakman,Steven (ed.), 2010. "The Gravity Model in International Trade," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521196154.
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    Cited by:

    1. Biswa Nath Bhattacharyay & Madhurima Bhattacharyay, 2016. "Trends and Patterns of Growth, Development, Achievements of China and India: A Comparative Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 5788, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian developing economies; global production sharing; intraregional trade; merchandise trade; trade flow projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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