IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jaitra/v85y2020ics0969699719301401.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Flying into the future: A scenario-based analysis of carbon emissions from China's civil aviation

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Xiao
  • Hang, Ye
  • Wang, Qunwei
  • Zhou, Dequn

Abstract

Aviation emissions will significantly affect climate change with the continued growth of the air transport. This study decomposes the drivers influencing China's civil aviation carbon emissions change in the period from 1985 to 2015. Emission trends are predicted using a Monte Carlo simulation. The results show a peak and reduction in the period between 2016 and 2030. Results also show that air transportation revenue growth is associated with increasing historical carbon emissions, while rising industry energy intensity significantly hampers carbon emissions reduction. The carbon intensity (CI) reduction goals were achieved in the different scenarios before 2020, but the carbon emissions peak target before 2030 can only be achieved under the technological breakthrough scenario (TBS). The reduction of air transport growth rate and promotion of new energy technologies are two essential strategies to reduce carbon emissions in the foreseeing future.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Xiao & Hang, Ye & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Flying into the future: A scenario-based analysis of carbon emissions from China's civil aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:85:y:2020:i:c:s0969699719301401
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101793
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699719301401
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jairtraman.2020.101793?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Anger, Annela & Köhler, Jonathan, 2010. "Including aviation emissions in the EU ETS: Much ado about nothing? A review," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 38-46, January.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6792 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Zhou, Wenji & Wang, Tao & Yu, Yadong & Chen, Dingjiang & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Scenario analysis of CO2 emissions from China’s civil aviation industry through 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 100-108.
    5. Ang, B.W., 2015. "LMDI decomposition approach: A guide for implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 233-238.
    6. Örkcü, H. Hasan & Balıkçı, Cemal & Dogan, Mustafa Isa & Genç, Aşır, 2016. "An evaluation of the operational efficiency of turkish airports using data envelopment analysis and the Malmquist productivity index: 2009–2014 case," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 92-104.
    7. Wang, Qunwei & Wang, Yizhong & Zhou, P. & Wei, Hongye, 2017. "Whole process decomposition of energy-related SO2 in Jiangsu Province, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 679-687.
    8. Wang, Bo & Sun, Yefei & Chen, Qingxiang & Wang, Zhaohua, 2018. "Determinants analysis of carbon dioxide emissions in passenger and freight transportation sectors in China," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 127-132.
    9. Bows, Alice & Anderson, Kevin L., 2007. "Policy clash: Can projected aviation growth be reconciled with the UK Government's 60% carbon-reduction target?," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 103-110, March.
    10. Liu, Xiao & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng & Wang, Qunwei, 2017. "Dynamic carbon emission performance of Chinese airlines: A global Malmquist index analysis," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 99-109.
    11. Peeters, Paul & Dubois, Ghislain, 2010. "Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 447-457.
    12. Chiaramonti, David & Prussi, Matteo & Buffi, Marco & Tacconi, Daniela, 2014. "Sustainable bio kerosene: Process routes and industrial demonstration activities in aviation biofuels," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 767-774.
    13. Chèze, Benoît & Gastineau, Pascal & Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Forecasting world and regional aviation jet fuel demands to the mid-term (2025)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5147-5158, September.
    14. Wang, Wenwen & Liu, Xiao & Zhang, Ming & Song, Xuefeng, 2014. "Using a new generalized LMDI (logarithmic mean Divisia index) method to analyze China's energy consumption," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 617-622.
    15. Anger, Annela, 2010. "Including aviation in the European emissions trading scheme: Impacts on the industry, CO2 emissions and macroeconomic activity in the EU," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 100-105.
    16. Simon Robertson, 2013. "High-speed rail's potential for the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions from short haul aviation: a longitudinal study of modal substitution from an energy generation and renewable energy perspectiv," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(5), pages 395-412, July.
    17. Liu, Xiao & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng & Wang, Qunwei, 2017. "What drives CO2 emissions from China’s civil aviation? An exploration using a new generalized PDA method," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 30-45.
    18. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions and reduction potential in the Chinese non-metallic mineral products industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 688-697.
    19. Lin, Boqiang & Long, Houyin, 2016. "Emissions reduction in China׳s chemical industry – Based on LMDI," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1348-1355.
    20. Loo, Becky P.Y. & Li, Linna, 2012. "Carbon dioxide emissions from passenger transport in China since 1949: Implications for developing sustainable transport," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 464-476.
    21. Wang, Qunwei & Chiu, Yung-Ho & Chiu, Ching-Ren, 2015. "Driving factors behind carbon dioxide emissions in China: A modified production-theoretical decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 252-260.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chiambaretto, Paul & Mayenc, Elodie & Chappert, Hervé & Engsig, Juliane & Fernandez, Anne-Sophie & Le Roy, Frédéric, 2021. "Where does flygskam come from? The role of citizens’ lack of knowledge of the environmental impact of air transport in explaining the development of flight shame," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Li, Fangyi & Li, Fei & Cai, Bofeng & Lyu, Chen & Xie, Wu, 2024. "Role of Chinese cities in abating aviation carbon emissions based on gridded population data and power law model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    3. Chen, Dan & Yin, Jianan & Xu, Feng & Huang, Chen & Li, Ziyu, 2023. "A market-based framework for CO2 emissions reduction in China's civil aviation industry," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 150-158.
    4. Qiu, Rui & Xu, Jiuping & Zeng, Ziqiang & Chen, Xin & Wang, Yinhai, 2022. "Carbon tax policy-induced air travel carbon emission reduction and biofuel usage in China," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Huang, Yumeng & Dai, Xingyu & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn, 2021. "A hybrid model for carbon price forecastingusing GARCH and long short-term memory network," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    6. Cao, Feng & Tang, Tie-Qiao & Gao, Yunqi & You, Feng & Zhang, Jian, 2023. "Calculation and analysis of new taxiing methods on aircraft fuel consumption and pollutant emissions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    7. Wang, Jiqiang & Wang, Ya & Zhang, Shaohui & Fan, Chun & Zhou, Nanqing & Liu, Jinhui & Li, Xin & Liu, Yun & Hou, Xiujun & Yi, Bowen, 2024. "Accounting of aviation carbon emission in developing countries based on flight-level ADS-B data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 358(C).
    8. Akhil Kunche & Bożena Mielczarek, 2021. "Application of System Dynamic Modelling for Evaluation of Carbon Mitigation Strategies in Cement Industries: A Comparative Overview of the Current State of the Art," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-22, March.
    9. Cheng Li & Yangzhou Li & Jian Xing, 2023. "Multivariate Grey Prediction Model Application in Civil Aviation Carbon Emission Based on Fractional Order Accumulation and Background Value Optimization," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-19, June.
    10. Zhang, Peiwen & Ding, Rui, 2023. "How to achieve carbon abatement in aviation with hybrid mechanism? A stochastic evolutionary game model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    11. Michelmann, Johannes & Schmalz, Ulrike & Becker, Axel & Stroh, Florian & Behnke, Sebastian & Hornung, Mirko, 2023. "Influence of COVID-19 on air travel - A scenario study toward future trusted aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    12. Chen, Qingjuan & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Honggang, 2023. "Drivers and evolution of low-carbon development in China's transportation industry: An integrated analytical approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    13. Dai, Xingyu & Li, Matthew C. & Xiao, Ling & Wang, Qunwei, 2022. "COVID-19 and China commodity price jump behavior: An information spillover and wavelet coherency analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Qingjuan & Wang, Qunwei & Zhou, Dequn & Wang, Honggang, 2023. "Drivers and evolution of low-carbon development in China's transportation industry: An integrated analytical approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    2. Liu, Xiao & Zhou, Dequn & Zhou, Peng & Wang, Qunwei, 2017. "What drives CO2 emissions from China’s civil aviation? An exploration using a new generalized PDA method," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 30-45.
    3. Wang, Qunwei & Hang, Ye & Su, Bin & Zhou, Peng, 2018. "Contributions to sector-level carbon intensity change: An integrated decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 12-25.
    4. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s mining industry: Evidence and policy implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 77-87.
    5. Lin, Boqiang & Raza, Muhammad Yousaf, 2021. "Analysis of electricity consumption in Pakistan using index decomposition and decoupling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    6. Song, Yi & Huang, Jian-Bai & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions in China's iron and steel industry: A comprehensive decomposition framework," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 103-116.
    7. Zhou, Wenji & Wang, Tao & Yu, Yadong & Chen, Dingjiang & Zhu, Bing, 2016. "Scenario analysis of CO2 emissions from China’s civil aviation industry through 2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 100-108.
    8. Ang, B.W. & Goh, Tian, 2019. "Index decomposition analysis for comparing emission scenarios: Applications and challenges," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 74-87.
    9. Sun, Xiaoqi & Liu, Xiaojia, 2020. "Decomposition analysis of debt’s impact on China’s energy consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Chen, Jiandong & Xu, Chong & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Song, Malin, 2021. "Interaction determinants and projections of China’s energy consumption: 1997–2030," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    11. Raza, Muhammad Yousaf & Lin, Boqiang, 2023. "Future outlook and influencing factors analysis of natural gas consumption in Bangladesh: An economic and policy perspectives," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. Huang, Jian-Bai & Luo, Yu-Mei & Feng, Chao, 2019. "An overview of carbon dioxide emissions from China's ferrous metal industry: 1991-2030," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 541-549.
    13. Liang, Wei & Gan, Ting & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Dynamic evolution of characteristics and decomposition of factors influencing industrial carbon dioxide emissions in China: 1991–2015," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 93-106.
    14. Xiaoshu Cao & Shishu OuYang & Dan Liu & Wenyue Yang, 2019. "Spatiotemporal Patterns and Decomposition Analysis of CO 2 Emissions from Transportation in the Pearl River Delta," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-17, June.
    15. Wang, Juan & Hu, Mingming & Rodrigues, João F.D., 2018. "The evolution and driving forces of industrial aggregate energy intensity in China: An extended decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2195-2206.
    16. Tan, Ruipeng & Lin, Boqiang, 2018. "What factors lead to the decline of energy intensity in China's energy intensive industries?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 213-221.
    17. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Decomposing the change in energy consumption in China's nonferrous metal industry: An empirical analysis based on the LMDI method," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2652-2663.
    18. Eskander, Shaikh M.S.U. & Nitschke, Jakob, 2021. "Energy use and CO2 emissions in the UK universities: an extended Kaya identity analysis," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 110764, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Bagchi, Prantik & Sahu, Santosh Kumar & Kumar, Ajay & Tan, Kim Hua, 2022. "Analysis of carbon productivity for firms in the manufacturing sector of India," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    20. Yang, Lisha & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Carbon dioxide-emission in China׳s power industry: Evidence and policy implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 258-267.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jaitra:v:85:y:2020:i:c:s0969699719301401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-air-transport-management/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.