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The broken-windows theory of crime: A Bayesian approach

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  • Miceli, Thomas J.
  • Segerson, Kathleen

Abstract

The broken-windows theory of crime is based on the idea that aggressive enforcement of petty crimes, like misdemeanors, will have a deterring effect on would-be perpetrators of more serious crimes. This paper develops a model of this theory that depends on three factors: (1) potential offenders make decisions about committing crimes based on their beliefs about the probability of apprehension; (2) those beliefs depend on prior observations or knowledge about the rate of petty crimes; and (3) there is a linkage across criminal categories (minor vs. serious crimes) as a component of actual enforcement policy. Our results show that even if these factors are all present, increased enforcement of low-harm crimes does not necessarily lead to fewer high-harm crimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Miceli, Thomas J. & Segerson, Kathleen, 2024. "The broken-windows theory of crime: A Bayesian approach," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:irlaec:v:80:y:2024:i:c:s014481882400053x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irle.2024.106233
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crime; law enforcement; broken-windows theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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