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Reconciled boosted models for GEFCom2017 hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting

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  • Roach, Cameron

Abstract

When forecasting time series in a hierarchical configuration, it is necessary to ensure that the forecasts reconcile at all levels. The 2017 Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom2017) focused on addressing this topic. Quantile forecasts for eight zones and two aggregated zones in New England were required for every hour of a future month. This paper presents a new methodology for forecasting quantiles in a hierarchy which outperforms a commonly-used benchmark model. A simulation-based approach was used to generate demand forecasts. Adjustments were made to each of the demand simulations to ensure that all zonal forecasts reconciled appropriately, and a weighted reconciliation approach was implemented to ensure that the bottom-level zonal forecasts summed correctly to the aggregated zonal forecasts. We show that reconciling in this manner improves the forecast accuracy. A discussion of the results and modelling performances is presented, and brief reviews of hierarchical time series forecasting and gradient boosting are also included.

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  • Roach, Cameron, 2019. "Reconciled boosted models for GEFCom2017 hierarchical probabilistic load forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1439-1450.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:4:p:1439-1450
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.09.009
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    1. Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
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    6. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu, 2014. "Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 357-363.
    7. Gneiting, Tilmann, 2011. "Quantiles as optimal point forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 197-207.
    8. Hong, Tao & Pinson, Pierre & Fan, Shu & Zareipour, Hamidreza & Troccoli, Alberto & Hyndman, Rob J., 2016. "Probabilistic energy forecasting: Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 and beyond," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 896-913.
    9. Hyndman, Rob J. & Lee, Alan J. & Wang, Earo, 2016. "Fast computation of reconciled forecasts for hierarchical and grouped time series," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 16-32.
    10. Shanika L Wickramasuriya & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman, 2015. "Forecasting hierarchical and grouped time series through trace minimization," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 15/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Cameron Roach & Rob Hyndman & Souhaib Ben Taieb, 2021. "Non‐linear mixed‐effects models for time series forecasting of smart meter demand," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1118-1130, September.
    2. Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024. "Forecast reconciliation: A review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 430-456.
    3. Xu, Xiuqin & Chen, Ying & Goude, Yannig & Yao, Qiwei, 2021. "Day-ahead probabilistic forecasting for French half-hourly electricity loads and quantiles for curve-to-curve regression," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120774, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Jeon, Jooyoung & Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2019. "Probabilistic forecast reconciliation with applications to wind power and electric load," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 364-379.

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