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Systemic risk in major public contracts

Author

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  • Bloomfield, Katherine
  • Williams, Terry
  • Bovis, Chris
  • Merali, Yasmin

Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach to the characterisation of “systemic risk” in the context of public sector procurement and contracting. We argue that contemporary risk management practices in project and programme management exhibit a number of limitations. This is particularly relevant to public sector contracting, which, the authors postulate, would benefit from more sophisticated practices that are capable of dealing with risk ‘systemicity’. Drawing on a sample of public sector procurement exercises commissioned by the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD), the paper presents a multi-method approach that aims to increase our understanding of complex outsourcing contracts. The results suggest a need for more appropriate methods of risk analysis, and discuss the practical implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Bloomfield, Katherine & Williams, Terry & Bovis, Chris & Merali, Yasmin, 2019. "Systemic risk in major public contracts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 667-676.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:2:p:667-676
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.10.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Manuel J. García Rodríguez & Vicente Rodríguez Montequín & Francisco Ortega Fernández & Joaquín M. Villanueva Balsera, 2019. "Public Procurement Announcements in Spain: Regulations, Data Analysis, and Award Price Estimator Using Machine Learning," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-20, November.

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