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The diffusion of mobile social networking: Exploring adoption externalities in four G7 countries

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  • Scaglione, Miriam
  • Giovannetti, Emanuele
  • Hamoudia, Mohsen

Abstract

The diffusion of Mobile Social Networking (MSN) is driven by the development of new devices and improved mobile broadband. The instantaneous nature of MSN exchanges enhances the value of data access for mobile users, which generates network externalities. We explore the presence of these externalities in the diffusion of MSN in France, the UK, the US and Germany. For these countries, we compare estimates of two diffusion models: the Bass model and the Bemmaor model. We find evidence of network externalities in MSN adoption for all of these countries, captured by the left skew of the cumulative adoption curves. This evidence is confirmed even after taking into account the contrasting effect of heterogeneity in the propensity to adopt. Our results provide content providers, operators and regulators with insights about marketing strategies, helping with policy formulation under the combined presence of network externalities and heterogeneity.

Suggested Citation

  • Scaglione, Miriam & Giovannetti, Emanuele & Hamoudia, Mohsen, 2015. "The diffusion of mobile social networking: Exploring adoption externalities in four G7 countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1159-1170.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:4:p:1159-1170
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.03.005
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    3. Wellmann, Nicolas, 2017. "OTT-messaging and mobile telecommunication: A joint market? - An empirical approach," DICE Discussion Papers 256, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    4. Mustafa Emre Civelek & Murat Cemberci & Necati Erdem Eralp, 2016. "The Role of Social Media in Crisis Communication and Crisis Management," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 5(3), pages 111-120, April.
    5. Wellmann, Nicolas, 2017. "OTT-Messaging and Mobile Telecommunication: A Joint Market? An Empirical Approach," 28th European Regional ITS Conference, Passau 2017 169503, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    6. Vicky Gu & Jonathan Davis & Ray Cao & John Vogt, 2017. "The effect of externalities on adoption of social customer relationship management (SCRM)," International Journal of Quality Innovation, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Wellmann, Nicolas, 2019. "Are OTT messaging and mobile telecommunication an interrelated market? An empirical analysis," Telecommunications Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(9).
    8. Park, Sungwook & Kwon, Youngsun, 2019. "Research on the Relationship between the Growth of OTT Service Market and the Change in the Structure of the Pay-TV Market," 30th European Regional ITS Conference, Helsinki 2019 205203, International Telecommunications Society (ITS).
    9. Dutta, Amitava & Puvvala, Abhinay & Roy, Rahul & Seetharaman, Priya, 2017. "Technology diffusion: Shift happens — The case of iOS and Android handsets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 28-43.
    10. Emanuele Giovannetti & Mohsen Hamoudia, 2022. "The interaction between direct and indirect network externalities in the early diffusion of mobile social networking," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(4), pages 617-642, December.
    11. Derbyshire, James & Giovannetti, Emanuele, 2017. "Understanding the failure to understand New Product Development failures: Mitigating the uncertainty associated with innovating new products by combining scenario planning and forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 334-344.
    12. Bemmaor, Albert C. & Zheng, Li, 2018. "The diffusion of mobile social networking: Further study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 612-621.

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