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A simple approach to projecting the electoral college

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  • Putnam, Joshua T.

Abstract

The following research note examines the utility of a simpler method of projecting the winners of the various states within the United States Electoral College system. While more advanced models may be able to center on state-level presidential winners earlier in an election year, those models, among others, continue to be confounded by states where the lead is small and/or not clear. This research will demonstrate that over the course of the elections from 2000 to 2012, a simple weighted average identifies state winners as well as the more complex models.

Suggested Citation

  • Putnam, Joshua T., 2015. "A simple approach to projecting the electoral college," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 910-915.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:3:p:910-915
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2015.01.002
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