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Replications of forecasting research

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  • Evanschitzky, Heiner
  • Armstrong, J. Scott

Abstract

We have examined the frequency of replications published in the two leading forecasting journals, the International Journal of Forecasting (IJF) and the Journal of Forecasting (JoF). Replications in the IJF and JoF between 1996 and 2008 comprised 8.4% of the empirical papers. Various other areas of management science have values ranging from 2.2% in the Journal of Marketing Research to 18.1% in the American Economic Review. We also found that 35.3% of the replications in forecasting journals provided full support for the findings of the initial study, 45.1% provided partial support, and 19.6% provided no support. Given the importance of replications, we recommend various steps to encourage replications, such as requiring a full disclosure of the methods and data used for all published papers, and inviting researchers to replicate specific important papers.

Suggested Citation

  • Evanschitzky, Heiner & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2010. "Replications of forecasting research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 4-8, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:1:p:4-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fildes, Robert & Hibon, Michele & Makridakis, Spyros & Meade, Nigel, 1998. "Generalising about univariate forecasting methods: further empirical evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 339-358, September.
    2. Evanschitzky, Heiner & Baumgarth, Carsten & Hubbard, Raymond & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2007. "Replication research's disturbing trend," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 411-415, April.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hyndman, Rob J., 2020. "A brief history of forecasting competitions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 7-14.
    3. Trinh, Giang & Dawes, John, 2020. "A comparison of brand loyalty between on the go and take-home consumption purchases," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Boylan, John E. & Goodwin, Paul & Mohammadipour, Maryam & Syntetos, Aris A., 2015. "Reproducibility in forecasting research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 79-90.
    5. Ryan, James C. & A Tipu, Syed A., 2022. "Business and management research: Low instances of replication studies and a lack of author independence in replications," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(1).
    6. Evanschitzky, Heiner & Armstrong, J. Scott, 2013. "Research with In-built replications: Comment and further suggestions for replication research," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 66(9), pages 1406-1408.
    7. Doucouliagos, Hristos & Paldam, Martin & Stanley, T.D., 2018. "Skating on thin evidence: Implications for public policy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 16-25.
    8. Fildes, Robert & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2015. "Is there a Golden Rule?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 68(8), pages 1742-1745.
    9. Hensel, Przemysław G., 2021. "Reproducibility and replicability crisis: How management compares to psychology and economics – A systematic review of literature," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 577-594.
    10. Johnson, Samuel G. B., 2019. "Toward a cognitive science of markets: Economic agents as sense-makers," Economics Discussion Papers 2019-10, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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