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What’s the expected loss when Bitcoin is under cyberattack? A fractal process analysis

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  • Grobys, Klaus
  • Dufitinema, Josephine
  • Sapkota, Niranjan
  • Kolari, James W.

Abstract

In the era of digitalization, cryptocurrencies have become an alternative asset for both retail and institutional investors. While the emerging digital ecosystem based on blockchain technology offers numerous advantages, it is important to be aware of potential risks such as hacking incidents. In the 2011–2021 period, approximately 1.7 million units of Bitcoin were stolen due to criminal activity with losses exceeding $700 million. This paper models the distribution of stolen coins as a fractal process using power laws to estimate the expected losses from Bitcoin cyberattacks. Our results show that naïve statistics dramatically underestimate the expected loss by more than 70 percent. Our findings have important policy implications with respect to the urgent need for cryptocurrency market oversight by governments and regulatory agencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Grobys, Klaus & Dufitinema, Josephine & Sapkota, Niranjan & Kolari, James W., 2022. "What’s the expected loss when Bitcoin is under cyberattack? A fractal process analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:77:y:2022:i:c:s1042443122000257
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2022.101534
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Yu-Lun & Chang, Yung Ting & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2023. "Cryptocurrency hacking incidents and the price dynamics of Bitcoin spot and futures," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).
    2. Klaus Grobys & Timothy King & Niranjan Sapkota, 2022. "A Fractal View on Losses Attributable to Scams in the Market for Initial Coin Offerings," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Choudhary, Priya & Thenmozhi, M., 2024. "Fintech and financial sector: ADO analysis and future research agenda," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    4. Marcin Pietrzak, 2023. "What can monetary policy tell us about Bitcoin?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 545-559, December.
    5. Gambarelli, Luca & Marchi, Gianluca & Muzzioli, Silvia, 2023. "Hedging effectiveness of cryptocurrencies in the European stock market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    6. Grobys, Klaus, 2024. "On co-dependent power-law behavior across cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Cryptocurrency; Cyberattacks; Financial technology; Hacking incidents;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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