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What do we know about the second moment of financial markets?

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  • Grobys, Klaus

Abstract

Recent research shows that the vast majority of scientific studies published in leading finance journals fails scientific replication (Hou, Xue, and Zhang, 2020; Harvey, Liu, and Zhu; 2016). This study argues that p-hacking, publication pressure and the selection bias from leading finance journals are perhaps not the underlying root cause for this issue. This study shows that standard methodologies often used in finance research are inevitably sample-specific due to the very nature of financial markets. While the consensus of earlier research postulates a rejection of the time-honored Levy hypothesis, the results of this study strongly indicate that the variance of variance does not exist in any of the financial key markets that are considered. An unexpected finding of this study is that the variance process governing the U.S. dollar foreign exchange rate market is generating more extreme events than the Bitcoin market. The results cast doubts on the validity of methodologies currently used in finance research.

Suggested Citation

  • Grobys, Klaus, 2021. "What do we know about the second moment of financial markets?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:78:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921002180
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101891
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Chao, Xiangrui & Ran, Qin & Chen, Jia & Li, Tie & Qian, Qian & Ergu, Daji, 2022. "Regulatory technology (Reg-Tech) in financial stability supervision: Taxonomy, key methods, applications and future directions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Klaus Grobys, 2024. "Science or scientism? On the momentum illusion," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 479-519, December.
    4. Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "A Fractal and Comparative View of the Memory of Bitcoin and S&P 500 Returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    5. Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "Correlation versus co-fractality: Evidence from foreign-exchange-rate variances," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Klaus Grobys & Timothy King & Niranjan Sapkota, 2022. "A Fractal View on Losses Attributable to Scams in the Market for Initial Coin Offerings," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-18, December.
    7. Grobys, Klaus & Dufitinema, Josephine & Sapkota, Niranjan & Kolari, James W., 2022. "What’s the expected loss when Bitcoin is under cyberattack? A fractal process analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    8. Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "A multifractal model of asset (in)variances," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Finance; Pareto distributions; Power laws; Second moment; Variance; Variance of variance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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