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The Stock-Bond Return Relation, the Term Structure’s Slope, and Asset-Class Risk Dynamics

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  • Bansal, Naresh
  • Connolly, Robert A.
  • Stivers, Chris

Abstract

We study whether asset-class risk dynamics can help explain the predominantly negative stock-bond return relation and movements in the term structure’s slope over 1997–2011. Using option-derived implied volatilities to measure risk, we find i) the negative stock-bond return relation largely disappears when controlling for risk movements, at both monthly and weekly horizons; ii) the partial relation between equity-risk changes and 10-year T-bond excess returns (term-slope movements) is reliably positive (negative); and iii) a stronger link between equity risk and stock returns implies a more negative stock-bond return correlation. Our results suggest a flight-to-quality influence between equity-risk dynamics and longer-term Treasury pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Bansal, Naresh & Connolly, Robert A. & Stivers, Chris, 2014. "The Stock-Bond Return Relation, the Term Structure’s Slope, and Asset-Class Risk Dynamics," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 699-724, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:49:y:2014:i:03:p:699-724_00
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    1. Robert A Connolly & David Dubofsky & Chris Stivers, 2021. "Economic-State Variation in Uncertainty-Yield Dynamics [Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 60-104.
    2. Juan Andres Rodriguez-Nieto & Andre V. Mollick, 2021. "The US financial crisis, market volatility, credit risk and stock returns in the Americas," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(2), pages 225-254, June.
    3. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2015. "Systemic risk and asymmetric responses in the financial industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 471-485.
    4. P. Byrne, Joseph & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2015. "Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-71, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    5. OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi & TAKAOKA Sumiko, 2017. "No-arbitrage Determinants of Japanese Government Bond Yield and Credit Spread Curves," Discussion papers 17104, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Dungey, Mardi & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Matei, Marius & Yang, Xiye, 2018. "Testing for mutually exciting jumps and financial flights in high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 18-44.
    7. Hsu, Chih-Hsiang & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Lien, Donald, 2020. "Stock market uncertainty, volatility connectedness of financial institutions, and stock-bond return correlations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 600-621.
    8. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2021. "Economic uncertainty, oil prices, hedging and U.S. stock returns of the airline industry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    9. Umar, Zaghum & Yousaf, Imran & Aharon, David Y., 2021. "The relationship between yield curve components and equity sectorial indices: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Bethke, Sebastian & Gehde-Trapp, Monika & Kempf, Alexander, 2017. "Investor sentiment, flight-to-quality, and corporate bond comovement," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 112-132.
    11. Ngene, Geoffrey M., 2021. "What drives dynamic connectedness of the U.S equity sectors during different business cycles?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Lin, Fu-Lai & Yang, Sheng-Yung & Marsh, Terry & Chen, Yu-Fen, 2018. "Stock and bond return relations and stock market uncertainty: Evidence from wavelet analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 285-294.
    13. Muhammad Safdar Sial & Jacob Cherian & Abdelrhman Meero & Asma Salman & Abdul Aziz Abdul Rahman & Sarminah Samad & Constantin Viorel Negrut, 2022. "Determining Financial Uncertainty through the Dynamics of Sukuk Bonds and Prices in Emerging Market Indices," Risks, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-13, March.
    14. Juan Carlos Reboredo & Nader Naifar, 2017. "Do Islamic Bond (Sukuk) Prices Reflect Financial and Policy Uncertainty? A Quantile Regression Approach," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(7), pages 1535-1546, July.
    15. Ermolov, Andrey, 2022. "Time-varying risk of nominal bonds: How important are macroeconomic shocks?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1), pages 1-28.
    16. Umar, Zaghum & Riaz, Yasir & Shahab, Yasir & Teplova, Tamara, 2023. "Network connectedness of the term structure of yield curve and global Sukuks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    17. Bethke, Sebastian & Gehde-Trapp, Monika & Kempf, Alexander, 2015. "Investor sentiment, flight-to-quality, and corporate bond comovement," CFR Working Papers 13-06 [rev.3], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    18. Miao Jia, 2016. "The Long-Run Effects of the Fed’s Monetary Policy on the Dynamics among Major Asset Classes," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 51(1), pages 9-19, September.
    19. Bansal, Naresh & Connolly, Robert A. & Stivers, Chris, 2015. "Equity volatility as a determinant of future term-structure volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 33-51.
    20. Radeef Chundakkadan & Subash Sasidharan, 2021. "Central bank's money market operations and daily stock returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 136-152, January.
    21. Arfaoui, Mongi & Chkili, Walid & Ben Rejeb, Aymen, 2022. "Asymmetric and dynamic links in GCC Sukuk-stocks: Implications for portfolio management before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    22. Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Takaoka, Sumiko, 2020. "No-arbitrage determinants of credit spread curves under the unconventional monetary policy regime in Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    23. Li, Yulin & Wald, John K. & Wang, Zijun, 2020. "Sovereign bonds, coskewness, and monetary policy regimes," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    24. Byrne, Joseph P. & Cao, Shuo & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields in unstable environments," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 209-225.
    25. Gormus, Alper & Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2018. "High-yield bond and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 101-110.

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