IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v24y2013icp25-41.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The microstructure of covered interest arbitrage in a market with a dominant market maker

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Hao-Chen
  • Witte, Mark David

Abstract

Measured by transaction volume, foreign exchange swaps are the largest market in the world. However, there are very few empirical studies of swap rates. Theoretically, covered interest parity is commonly assumed. But what factors determine arbitrage opportunities? We create a unique microstructure model of exchange rate activity to identify theoretical predictions regarding covered interest arbitrage in a market with a dominant market maker. Using a unique data set of actual, recorded swap transactions, not price quotes, the model is verified as we find economically significant returns that depend in part on market volatility, contract irregularity and trader identity.

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Hao-Chen & Witte, Mark David, 2013. "The microstructure of covered interest arbitrage in a market with a dominant market maker," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 25-41.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:24:y:2013:i:c:p:25-41
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.11.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042443112001102
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.intfin.2012.11.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "From turmoil to crisis: Dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1350-1374, December.
    2. Furfine, Craig H., 2004. "Public disclosures and calendar-related movements in risk premiums: evidence from interbank lending," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 97-116, January.
    3. Taylor, Mark P, 1989. "Covered Interest Arbitrage and Market Turbulence," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(396), pages 376-391, June.
    4. Cho‐Hoi Hui & Hans Genberg & Tsz‐Kin Chung, 2011. "Funding liquidity risk and deviations from interest‐rate parity during the financial crisis of 2007–2009," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 307-323, October.
    5. repec:bla:econom:v:54:y:1987:i:216:p:429-38 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    7. Eun, Cheol S. & Sabherwal, Sanjiv, 2002. "Forecasting exchange rates: Do banks know better?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 195-215.
    8. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2009. "Understanding the Forward Premium Puzzle: A Microstructure Approach," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(2), pages 127-154, July.
    9. Peter G. Szilagyi & Jonathan A. Batten, 2006. "Arbitrage, Covered Interest Parity and Long-Term Dependence between the US Dollar and the Yen," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp128, IIIS.
    10. Peiers, Bettina, 1997. "Informed Traders, Intervention, and Price Leadership: A Deeper View of the Microstructure of the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1589-1614, September.
    11. Moulton, Pamela C., 2005. "You can't always get what you want: Trade-size clustering and quantity choice in liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 89-119, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hao-Chen Liu & Mark David Witte, 2019. "Preferred Habitat, Window Dressing, or Both? Evidence From Foreign Exchange Swaps in Taiwan," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(03), pages 1-20, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    3. Shin-ichi Fukuda, 2016. "Regional Liquidity Risk and Covered Interest Parity During the Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Tokyo, London, and New York," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 339-359, July.
    4. David-Pur, Lior & Galil, Koresh & Rosenboim, Mosi & Shapir, Offer Moshe, 2023. "Cross-currency basis swap spreads and corporate dollar funding," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    5. Kuga Iakov & Elena Kuzmina, 2016. "Covered interest parity: evidence from Russian money market," EERC Working Paper Series 16/01e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    6. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Li, Yan, 2024. "The out-of-sample performance of carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    7. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    8. Filippou, Ilias & Taylor, Mark P., 2017. "Common Macro Factors and Currency Premia," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 1731-1763, August.
    9. Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2012. "Dollar illiquidity and central bank swap arrangements during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 326-340.
    10. Pippenger, John, 2017. "Forward Bias, The Failure Of Uncovered Interest Parity And Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2ff194s2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    11. Nagayasu, Jun, 2012. "The Forward Premium Puzzle And Risk Premiums," MPRA Paper 42472, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Bilson, Chris & Brailsford, Tim & Rajaguru, Gulasekaran, 2022. "Covered interest rate parity deviations in the Asia-Pacific," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Kearney, Fearghal & Cummins, Mark & Murphy, Finbarr, 2019. "Using extracted forward rate term structure information to forecast foreign exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Yushi Yoshida & Jan C. Rülke, 2009. "On-Going versus Completed Interventions and Yen/Dollar Expectations - Evidence from Disaggregated Survey Data," Discussion Papers 35, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics, revised Dec 2009.
    15. Nagayasu, Jun, 2014. "The forward premium puzzle and the Euro," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 436-451.
    16. Geyikçi, Utku Bora & Özyıldırım, Süheyla, 2023. "Deviations from covered interest parity in the emerging markets after the global financial crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    17. Pippenger, John, 2018. "Forward Bias, Uncovered Interest Parity and Related Puzzles," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt2cm6p186, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    18. Baba, Naohiko & Packer, Frank, 2009. "From turmoil to crisis: Dislocations in the FX swap market before and after the failure of Lehman Brothers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1350-1374, December.
    19. Stenfors, Alexis, 2018. "Bid-ask spread determination in the FX swap market: Competition, collusion or a convention?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 78-97.
    20. Ranaldo, Angelo & Somogyi, Fabricius, 2021. "Asymmetric information risk in FX markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 391-411.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Covered interest; Foreign exchange microstructure; Forward swap; Hedging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:24:y:2013:i:c:p:25-41. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.