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Foreign exchange volatility and stock returns

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  • Du, Ding
  • Hu, Ou

Abstract

This paper explores whether foreign exchange volatility is a priced factor in the US stock market. Our investigation is motivated by a number of empirical as well as theoretical considerations. Empirically, Menkhoff et al. (2012) find that foreign exchange volatility is a pervasive factor across a variety of test assets. Theoretically, Shapiro (1974), Dumas (1978), and Levi (1990) imply that foreign exchange volatility can influence firms’ cash flow volatility therefore the discount rate. In terms of empirical implementation, we employ the cross-sectional regression methodology of Fama and MacBeth (1973) as well as the time-series regression approach of Fama and French (1996). For robustness, we also use the mimicking portfolio approach of Fama and French (1993). We find that foreign exchange volatility has no power to explain either the time-series or the cross-section of stock returns, which calls for more research on foreign exchange risk. Bartov et al. (1996) and Adrian and Rosenberg (2008) suggest an alternative and maybe promising direction.

Suggested Citation

  • Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2012. "Foreign exchange volatility and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1202-1216.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:22:y:2012:i:5:p:1202-1216
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intfin.2012.07.001
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    4. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Tongurai, Jittima, 2014. "The spillover effects of unremunerated reserve requirements: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 338-351.
    5. Du, Ding & Hu, Ou, 2014. "The long-run component of foreign exchange volatility and stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 268-284.
    6. Michael Frömmel & Eyup Kadioglu, 2023. "Impact of trading hours extensions on foreign exchange volatility: intraday evidence from the Moscow exchange," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, December.
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    8. Karunanayake, Indika, 2014. "Exchange Rate Influences On Stock Market Returns And Volatility Dynamics: Empirical Evidence From The Australian Stock Market," Review of Applied Economics, Lincoln University, Department of Financial and Business Systems, vol. 10(1-2), January.
    9. Spencer, Marilyn & Gevrek, Deniz & Chambers, Valrie & Bowden, Randall, 2015. "Labor Supply and Productivity Responses to Non-Salary Benefits: Do They Work? If So, at What Level Do They Work Best?," IZA Discussion Papers 9153, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Hong-Ghi Min & Judith A. McDonald & Sang-Ook Shin, 2016. "What Makes a Safe Haven? Equity and Currency Returns for Six OECD Countries during the Financial Crisis," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(2), pages 365-402, November.
    11. Joseph, Nathan Lael & Lambertides, Neophytos & Savva, Christos S., 2015. "Short-horizon excess returns and exchange rate and interest rate effects," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 54-76.
    12. Jaratin Lily & Imbarine Bujang & Abdul Aziz Karia & Mori Kogid, 2018. "Exchange rate exposure revisited in Malaysia: a tale of two measures," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(4), pages 409-435, December.
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