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Using DNA to predict intelligence

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  • von Stumm, Sophie
  • Plomin, Robert

Abstract

The DNA revolution made it possible to use DNA to predict intelligence. We argue that this advance will transform intelligence research and society. Our paper has three objectives. First, we review how the DNA revolution has transformed the ability to predict individual differences in intelligence. Thousands of DNA variants have been identified that – aggregated into genome-wide polygenic scores (GPS) – account for more than 10% of the variance in phenotypic intelligence. The intelligence GPS is now one of the most powerful predictors in the behavioral sciences. Second, we consider the impact of GPS on intelligence research. The intelligence GPS can be added as a genetic predictor of intelligence to any study without the need to assess phenotypic intelligence. This feature will help export intelligence to many new areas of science. Also , the intelligence GPS will help to address complex questions in intelligence research, in particular how the gene-environment interplay affects the development of individual differences in intelligence. Third, we consider the societal impact of the intelligence GPS, focusing on DNA testing at birth, DNA testing before birth (e.g., embryo selection), and DNA testing before conception (e.g., DNA dating). The intelligence GPS represents a major scientific advance, and, like all scientific advances, it can be used for bad as well as good. We stress the need to maximize the considerable benefits and minimize the risks of our new ability to use DNA to predict intelligence.

Suggested Citation

  • von Stumm, Sophie & Plomin, Robert, 2021. "Using DNA to predict intelligence," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intell:v:86:y:2021:i:c:s0160289621000143
    DOI: 10.1016/j.intell.2021.101530
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Javier de la Fuente & Gail Davies & Andrew D. Grotzinger & Elliot M. Tucker-Drob & Ian J. Deary, 2021. "A general dimension of genetic sharing across diverse cognitive traits inferred from molecular data," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 5(1), pages 49-58, January.
    2. Carl Shulman & Nick Bostrom, 2014. "Embryo Selection for Cognitive Enhancement: Curiosity or Game-changer?," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 5(1), pages 85-92, February.
    3. Kaili Rimfeld & Eva Krapohl & Maciej Trzaskowski & Jonathan R. I. Coleman & Saskia Selzam & Philip S. Dale & Tonu Esko & Andres Metspalu & Robert Plomin, 2018. "Genetic influence on social outcomes during and after the Soviet era in Estonia," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 269-275, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Haier, Richard J., 2021. "Are we thinking big enough about the road ahead? Overview of the special issue on the future of intelligence research," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    2. Demetriou, Andreas & Mougi, Antigoni & Spanoudis, George & Makris, Nicolaos, 2022. "Changing developmental priorities between executive functions, working memory, and reasoning in the formation of g from 6 to 12 years," Intelligence, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).

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