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Pricing inflation products with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates

Author

Listed:
  • Singor, Stefan N.
  • Grzelak, Lech A.
  • van Bragt, David D.B.
  • Oosterlee, Cornelis W.

Abstract

We consider a Heston type inflation model in combination with a Hull–White model for nominal and real interest rates, in which all the correlations can be non-zero. Due to the presence of the Heston dynamics our derived inflation model is able to capture the implied volatility skew/smile, which is present in the inflation option market data. We derive an efficient approximate semi-closed pricing formula for two types of inflation dependent options: index and year-on-year inflation options. The derived pricing formulas allow for an efficient calibration of the inflation model. We also illustrate our approach using a real-life pension fund example, where the Heston Hull–White model is used to determine the value of conditional future indexations.

Suggested Citation

  • Singor, Stefan N. & Grzelak, Lech A. & van Bragt, David D.B. & Oosterlee, Cornelis W., 2013. "Pricing inflation products with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rates," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 286-299.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:52:y:2013:i:2:p:286-299
    DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2013.01.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    3. Lech A. Grzelak & Cornelis W. Oosterlee, 2012. "On Cross-Currency Models with Stochastic Volatility and Correlated Interest Rates," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-35, February.
    4. Robert Jarrow & Yildiray Yildirim, 2008. "Pricing Treasury Inflation Protected Securities and Related Derivatives using an HJM Model," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 16, pages 349-370, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Fang, Fang & Oosterlee, Kees, 2008. "A Novel Pricing Method For European Options Based On Fourier-Cosine Series Expansions," MPRA Paper 9319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mark Broadie & Özgür Kaya, 2006. "Exact Simulation of Stochastic Volatility and Other Affine Jump Diffusion Processes," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 54(2), pages 217-231, April.
    7. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    8. Alexander van Haastrecht & Antoon Pelsser, 2011. "Generic pricing of FX, inflation and stock options under stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 665-691.
    9. Grzelak, Lech & Oosterlee, Kees, 2009. "On The Heston Model with Stochastic Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 20620, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 18 Jan 2010.
    10. David van Bragt & Hens Steehouwer & Bart Waalwijk, 2010. "Market Consistent ALM for Life Insurers—Steps toward Solvency II," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 35(1), pages 92-109, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Henrik Dam & Andrea Macrina & David Skovmand & David Sloth, 2018. "Rational Models for Inflation-Linked Derivatives," Papers 1801.08804, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2020.
    2. Flavia Antonacci & Cristina Costantini & Marco Papi, 2021. "Short-Term Interest Rate Estimation by Filtering in a Model Linking Inflation, the Central Bank and Short-Term Interest Rates," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(10), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Teh Raihana Nazirah Roslan & Wenjun Zhang & Jiling Cao, 2016. "Pricing variance swaps with stochastic volatility and stochastic interest rate under full correlation structure," Papers 1610.09714, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    4. Jean-François Bégin, 2016. "Deflation Risk and Implications for Life Insurers," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(4), pages 1-36, December.
    5. Chiarella, Carl & Da Fonseca, José & Grasselli, Martino, 2014. "Pricing range notes within Wishart affine models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 193-203.
    6. Liang, Zongxia & Sheng, Wenlong, 2016. "Valuing inflation-linked death benefits under a stochastic volatility framework," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 45-58.
    7. F. Antonacci & C. Costantini & F. D'Ippoliti & M. Papi, 2020. "Inflation, ECB and short-term interest rates: A new model, with calibration to market data," Papers 2010.05462, arXiv.org.
    8. Park, Kyunghyun & Wong, Hoi Ying & Yan, Tingjin, 2023. "Robust retirement and life insurance with inflation risk and model ambiguity," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 1-30.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heston Hull–White model; Inflation; Affine diffusion processes; Monte Carlo simulation; Indexation provision; Pension fund;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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