IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/insuma/v47y2010i2p113-122.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hybrid fuzzy least-squares regression analysis in claims reserving with geometric separation method

Author

Listed:
  • Apaydin, Aysen
  • Baser, Furkan

Abstract

Claims reserving is obviously necessary for representing future obligations of an insurance company and selection of an accurate method is a major component of the overall claims reserving process. However, the wide range of unquantifiable factors which increase the uncertainty should be considered when using any method to estimate the amount of outstanding claims based on past data. Unlike traditional methods in claims analysis, fuzzy set approaches can tolerate imprecision and uncertainty without loss of performance and effectiveness. In this paper, hybrid fuzzy least-squares regression, which is proposed by Chang (2001), is used to predict future claim costs by utilizing the concept of a geometric separation method. We use probabilistic confidence limits for designing triangular fuzzy numbers. Thus, it allows us to reflect variability measures contained in a data set in the prediction of future claim costs. We also propose weighted functions of fuzzy numbers as a defuzzification procedure in order to transform estimated fuzzy claim costs into a crisp real equivalent.

Suggested Citation

  • Apaydin, Aysen & Baser, Furkan, 2010. "Hybrid fuzzy least-squares regression analysis in claims reserving with geometric separation method," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 113-122, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:47:y:2010:i:2:p:113-122
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-6687(10)00078-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hossack,I. B. & Pollard,J. H. & Zehnwirth,B., 1999. "Introductory Statistics with Applications in General Insurance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521652346, September.
    2. Jorge De Andrés Sánchez & Antonio Terceño Gómez, 2003. "Applications of Fuzzy Regression in Actuarial Analysis," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 665-699, December.
    3. Wu, Hsien-Chung, 2003. "Fuzzy estimates of regression parameters in linear regression models for imprecise input and output data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 203-217, February.
    4. Shapiro, Arnold F., 2009. "Fuzzy random variables," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 307-314, April.
    5. Hossack,I. B. & Pollard,J. H. & Zehnwirth,B., 1999. "Introductory Statistics with Applications in General Insurance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521655347, September.
    6. de Andres-Sanchez, Jorge, 2007. "Claim reserving with fuzzy regression and Taylor's geometric separation method," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 145-163, January.
    7. Verbeek, H. G., 1972. "An approach to the analysis of claims experience in motor liability excess of loss reinsurance," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 195-202, May.
    8. Paulo J. R. Pinheiro & João Manuel Andrade e Silva & Maria De Lourdes Centeno, 2003. "Bootstrap Methodology in Claim Reserving," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 701-714, December.
    9. Shapiro, Arnold F., 2004. "Fuzzy logic in insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 399-424, October.
    10. Taylor, G. C., 1977. "Separation of Inflation and other Effects from the Distribution of Non-Life Insurance Claim Delays," ASTIN Bulletin, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1-2), pages 219-230, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pablo J. Villacorta & Laura González-Vila Puchades & Jorge de Andrés-Sánchez, 2021. "Fuzzy Markovian Bonus-Malus Systems in Non-Life Insurance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-23, February.
    2. Kemaloglu, Sibel Acik & Shapiro, Arnold F. & Tank, Fatih & Apaydin, Aysen, 2018. "Using fuzzy logic to interpret dependent risks," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 101-106.
    3. Heberle, Jochen & Thomas, Anne, 2014. "Combining chain-ladder claims reserving with fuzzy numbers," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 96-104.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. de Andres-Sanchez, Jorge, 2007. "Claim reserving with fuzzy regression and Taylor's geometric separation method," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 145-163, January.
    2. Heberle, Jochen & Thomas, Anne, 2014. "Combining chain-ladder claims reserving with fuzzy numbers," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 96-104.
    3. Klaus Schmidt, 2012. "Loss prediction based on run-off triangles," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(2), pages 265-310, June.
    4. Rachida Hennani & Michel Terraza, 2012. "Value-at-Risk stressée chaotique d’un portefeuille bancaire," Working Papers 12-23, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Sep 2012.
    5. Koissi, Marie-Claire & Shapiro, Arnold F., 2006. "Fuzzy formulation of the Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 287-309, December.
    6. Berry-Stölzle, Thomas R. & Irlbeck, Steven, 2021. "Religiosity and risk taking: Is there a demand-side effect?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Payandeh Najafabadi, Amir T. & Bazaz, Ali Panahi, 2016. "An optimal co-reinsurance strategy," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 149-155.
    8. Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Shapiro, A.F. & Terraza, M., 2014. "CAPM with fuzzy returns and hypothesis testing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 40-57.
    9. de Andrés-Sánchez, Jorge & González-Vila Puchades, Laura, 2017. "The valuation of life contingencies: A symmetrical triangular fuzzy approximation," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 83-94.
    10. Belles-Sampera, Jaume & Merigó, José M. & Guillén, Montserrat & Santolino, Miguel, 2013. "The connection between distortion risk measures and ordered weighted averaging operators," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 411-420.
    11. Bohnert, Alexander & Gatzert, Nadine & Kolb, Andreas, 2016. "Assessing inflation risk in non-life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 86-96.
    12. Najafabadi, Amir T. Payandeh & Bazaz, Ali Panahi, 2018. "An optimal multi-layer reinsurance policy under conditional tail expectation," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 130-146, March.
    13. Sadefo Kamdem, J. & Mbairadjim Moussa, A. & Terraza, M., 2012. "Fuzzy risk adjusted performance measures: Application to hedge funds," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 702-712.
    14. Zhang, Huiming & Liu, Yunxiao & Li, Bo, 2014. "Notes on discrete compound Poisson model with applications to risk theory," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 325-336.
    15. J. M. Vilar & R. Cao & M. C. Ausin & C. Gonzalez-Fragueiro, 2009. "Nonparametric analysis of aggregate loss models," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 149-166.
    16. Bai, Chong-En & Mao, Jie & Zhang, Qiong, 2014. "Measuring market concentration in China: the problem with using censored data and its rectification," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 432-447.
    17. Galina Horáková & František Slaninka & Zsolt Simonka, 2021. "The Reduction of Initial Reserves Using the Optimal Reinsurance Chains in Non-Life Insurance," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-20, June.
    18. Verrall, R. J., 2000. "An investigation into stochastic claims reserving models and the chain-ladder technique," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 91-99, February.
    19. Jorge De Andrés-Sánchez, 2024. "Calculating Insurance Claim Reserves with an Intuitionistic Fuzzy Chain-Ladder Method," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    20. Berry-Stölzle, Thomas R. & Koissi, Marie-Claire & Shapiro, Arnold F., 2010. "Detecting fuzzy relationships in regression models: The case of insurer solvency surveillance in Germany," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 554-567, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:insuma:v:47:y:2010:i:2:p:113-122. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505554 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.