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The optimal tax on antebellum US cotton exports

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  • Irwin, Douglas A.

Abstract

The United States produced about 80 percent of the world's cotton in the decades prior to the Civil War. How much monopoly power did the United States possess in the world cotton market and what would have been the effect of an optimal export tax? This paper estimates the elasticity of foreign demand for U.S. cotton exports and uses the elasticity in a simple partial equilibrium model to calculate the optimal export tax and its effect on prices, trade, and welfare. The results indicate that the export demand elasticity for U.S. cotton was about -1.7 and that the optimal export tax of about 50 percent would have raised U.S. welfare by about $6 million, about 0.1 percent of U.S. GDP or about 0.5 percent of the South's GDP.
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  • Irwin, Douglas A., 2003. "The optimal tax on antebellum US cotton exports," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 275-291, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:60:y:2003:i:2:p:275-291
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    3. Marcelo de Paiva Abreu & Felipe Tamega Fernandes, 2005. "Market Power and Commodity Prices: Brazil, Chile and the United States, 1820s-1930," Textos para discussão 511, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    4. David Chilosi & Giovanni Federico, 2021. "The effects of market integration during the first globalization: a multi-market approach," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 25(1), pages 20-58.
    5. Marc Weidenmier, 2004. "Gunboats, Reputation, and Sovereign Repayment: Lessons from the Southern Confederacy," NBER Working Papers 10960, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Steinwender, Claudia, 2013. "Information Frictions and the Law of One Price: “When the States and the Kingdom became United”," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Docweb) 1314, CEPREMAP.
    7. Marc D. Weidenmier & Kim Oosterlinck, 2007. "Victory or Repudiation? The Probability of the Southern Confederacy Winning the Civil War," NBER Working Papers 13567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Raimondos, Pascalis & Woodland, Alan, 2018. "Reciprocity in trade negotiations and welfare," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 134-142.
    9. Toshinobu Matsuda, 2005. "Differential Demand Systems: A Further Look at Barten's Synthesis," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(3), pages 607-619, January.
    10. Zhe Chen & Zhongzhong Hu & Kai Li, 2021. "The spillover effect of trade policy along the value Chain: Evidence from China's rare earth‐related sectors," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(12), pages 3550-3582, December.
    11. Weidenmier, Marc D., 2005. "Gunboats, reputation, and sovereign repayment: lessons from the Southern Confederacy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 407-422, July.
    12. Toshinobu Matsuda, 2007. "Linearizing the inverse quadratic almost ideal demand system," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 381-396.
    13. Ying Lin & Henry W. Kinnucan, 2020. "The optimal export tax for a primary commodity in a vertical market," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(6), pages 909-922, November.
    14. Waschik, Robert & Fraser, Iain, 2007. "A computable general equilibrium analysis of export taxes in the Australian wool industry," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 712-736, July.
    15. León, Sonia M. & Roitman, Mauricio E. & Romero, Carlos A., 2009. "Evaluación de los efectos de la remoción de medidas para-arancelarias sobre las exportaciones argentinas de productos textiles [Assessing the efects of eliminating non-tariff barriers over the Arge," MPRA Paper 17898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Burger, Kees, 2008. "Optimal export taxes – the case of cocoa in Cote d'Ivoire," 107th Seminar, January 30-February 1, 2008, Sevilla, Spain 6395, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Joseph Davis & Vanguard Group; Christopher Hanes, 2004. "Primary Sector Shocks and Early American Industrialization," 2004 Meeting Papers 154, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Devadoss, Stephen, 2008. "An Evaluation of Canadian and U.S. Policies of Log and Lumber Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 1-14, April.
    19. Claudia Steinwender, 2018. "Real Effects of Information Frictions: When the States and the Kingdom Became United," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 657-696, March.
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    21. Thales Zamberlan Pereira, 2021. "Taxation and the stagnation of cotton exports in Brazil, 1800–60," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(2), pages 522-545, May.

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    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy

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