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Exchange rate risk, banks' currency mismatches, and credit supply

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  • Abbassi, Puriya
  • Bräuning, Falk

Abstract

We exploit the post-Brexit depreciation of the British pound as an exogenous shock to show how exchange rate shocks transmit to the German real economy through the banking sector. German banks with GBP currency mismatches (between assets and liabilities, including off-balance sheet items) suffer losses when the currency of assets depreciates relative to that of liabilities, which they internalize by cutting back credit supply. For a one percentage-point loss in equity, a bank cuts credit supply by 73 basis points on average, with stronger effects for banks with lower equity capital. The credit contraction of German banks (i) affects also firms that are not directly related to UK conditions, (ii) holds across all industries, including non-tradable sectors, (iii) impacts relatively more small borrowers, and (iv) decreases affected firms' investments.

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  • Abbassi, Puriya & Bräuning, Falk, 2023. "Exchange rate risk, banks' currency mismatches, and credit supply," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:141:y:2023:i:c:s0022199623000119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103725
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Currency mismatch; Credit supply; Foreign exchange risk; Financial intermediation; Risk migration; Financial stability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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