From fewer blockbusters by more superstars to more blockbusters by fewer superstars: How technological innovation has impacted convergence on the music chart

The pace of change in recorded music technology has accelerated faster than ever during the past two decades with the shift from analog to digital. Digital recordings provide consumers the unimpeded ability to access, sample, learn about, acquire, store, and share vast amounts of music as never before. Supporters of winner-take-all theory believe lower search and transaction costs brought about by digitization have led to greater convergence with fewer extraordinarily popular songs (blockbusters) and a smaller number of artists who perform them (superstars). Supporters of long-tail theory believe the same factors have led to less convergence and a greater number of songs and artists becoming blockbusters and superstars. This work pits these opposing predictions against each other empirically. More specifically, we examine how the number of songs and artists appearing annually on Billboard's Hot 100 singles chart has changed between 1974 and 2013 in relation to three major turning points in technology associated with digitization. These turning points mark consumers' shift: (1) from analog records and cassettes to digital audio with the advent of CDs, (2) from CDs to compressed digital audio MP3s, and (3) from P2P networks and illegal file sharing to legitimate online distributors of digital downloads. In general, we observe a growing winner-take-all effect for songs until the advent of MP3s in 1998, when this trend abated. This result appears largely due to greater convergence in the Top 10. The trend reverses itself as the number of songs making the chart increases steadily after the launch of legitimate online music sellers such as iTunes. The exact opposite pattern is observed for artists. Initially, an increasing number of artists made the chart, and this trend continued unabated until 2003. After the emergence of legitimate online resellers, the trend reversed as fewer and fewer artists made it onto the chart. The overall pattern is summarized as a transition from fewer blockbusters by more superstars to more blockbusters by fewer superstars.