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Foreign investment with inflation-linked securities: A natural hedge under Fisher theory?

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  • Herbst, Anthony F.
  • Wu, Joseph S.K.

Abstract

All foreign holders of U.S. dollars currencies face significant risk of unfavorable currency exchange movements, proportional to the amounts they hold. Some of these risks can be hedged to an extent, but the costs of doing so can be significant, and errors in execution or maintenance of the hedges can cause serious capital losses. Today the vast holdings of China and others creates currency risk on an unprecedented scale. China alone now has a total in excess of a trillion (1 x 1012) U.S. dollars, which makes traditional approaches to hedging problematic at best.1 This paper analyzes the potential hedging effectiveness of investing foreign dollar holdings in U.S. inflation-indexed securities under Fisher's Identity. To the extent that Fisher's Identity and its derivative theories hold, foreign investors can effectively protect the purchasing power of their dollar balances, and earn an assured rate of return. Investment in inflation-indexed securities does not incur the additional expenses that swaps and currency hedges do.

Suggested Citation

  • Herbst, Anthony F. & Wu, Joseph S.K., 2008. "Foreign investment with inflation-linked securities: A natural hedge under Fisher theory?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 416-425.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:glofin:v:18:y:2008:i:3:p:416-425
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Coppock, Lee & Poitras, Marc, 2000. "Evaluating the Fisher effect in long-term cross-country averages," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 181-192.
    2. Woodward, G Thomas, 1992. "Evidence of the Fisher Effect from U.K. Indexed Bonds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 315-320, May.
    3. Nelson, Charles R & Schwert, G William, 1977. "Short-Term Interest Rates as Predictors of Inflation: On Testing the Hypothesis That the Real Rate of Interest is Constant," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 478-486, June.
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