IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/forpol/v50y2015icp11-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Regeneration decisions in forestry under climate change related uncertainties and risks: Effects of three different aspects of uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Schou, Erik
  • Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark
  • Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

Abstract

Future climate development and its effects on forest ecosystems are not easily predicted or described in terms of standard probability concepts. Nevertheless, forest managers continuously make long-term decisions that will be subject to climate change impacts. The manager's assessment of possible developments and impacts and the related uncertainty will affect the combined decision on timing of final harvest and the choice of species for regeneration. We analyse harvest of a Norway spruce stand with the option to regenerate with Norway spruce or oak. We use simulated variations in biophysical risks to generate a set of alternative outcomes, investigating effects on decision making of three aspects of uncertainty: (i) the perceived time horizon before there will be certainty on outcome, (ii) the spread of impacts across the set of alternative outcomes, and (iii) the subjective probability (belief) assigned to each outcome. Results show that the later a forest manager expects to obtain certainty about climate change or the more skewed their belief distribution, the more will decisions be based on ex ante assessments — suggesting that if forest managers believe that climate change uncertainty will prevail for a longer period of time, they may make sub-optimal decisions ex ante.

Suggested Citation

  • Schou, Erik & Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl, 2015. "Regeneration decisions in forestry under climate change related uncertainties and risks: Effects of three different aspects of uncertainty," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 11-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:50:y:2015:i:c:p:11-19
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2014.09.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1389934114001543
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.forpol.2014.09.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Insley, Margaret, 2002. "A Real Options Approach to the Valuation of a Forestry Investment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 471-492, November.
    2. Malchow-Moller, Nikolaj & Strange, Niels & Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark, 2004. "Real-options aspects of adjacency constraints," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 261-270, June.
    3. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    4. Brukas, Vilis & Jellesmark Thorsen, Bo & Helles, Finn & Tarp, Peter, 2001. "Discount rate and harvest policy: implications for Baltic forestry," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 143-156, June.
    5. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Conrad, Jon M., 1997. "On the option value of old-growth forest," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 97-102, August.
    7. James Tee & Riccardo Scarpa & Dan Marsh & Graeme Guthrie, 2014. "Forest Valuation under the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme: A Real Options Binomial Tree with Stochastic Carbon and Timber Prices," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(1), pages 44-60.
    8. Samuelson, William & Zeckhauser, Richard, 1988. "Status Quo Bias in Decision Making," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 7-59, March.
    9. Robert McDonald & Daniel Siegel, 1986. "The Value of Waiting to Invest," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(4), pages 707-727.
    10. Reed, William J., 1984. "The effects of the risk of fire on the optimal rotation of a forest," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 180-190, June.
    11. Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Investment decisions under uncertainty--A methodological review on forest science studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Couture, Stéphane & Cros, Marie-Josée & Sabbadin, Régis, 2016. "Risk aversion and optimal management of an uneven-aged forest under risk of windthrow: A Markov decision process approach," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 94-114.
    2. Lidskog, Rolf & Löfmarck, Erik, 2016. "Fostering a flexible forest: Challenges and strategies in the advisory practice of a deregulated forest management system," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 177-183.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Strange, Niels & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl & Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark, 2019. "Afforestation as a real option with joint production of environmental services," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 146-156.
    2. Hildebrandt, Patrick & Knoke, Thomas, 2011. "Investment decisions under uncertainty--A methodological review on forest science studies," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Insley, M.C. & Wirjanto, T.S., 2010. "Contrasting two approaches in real options valuation: Contingent claims versus dynamic programming," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 157-176, April.
    4. Sandri, Serena & Schade, Christian & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin, 2010. "Holding on for too long? An experimental study on inertia in entrepreneurs' and non-entrepreneurs' disinvestment choices," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 30-44, October.
    5. Hsiaw, Alice, 2013. "Goal-setting and self-control," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(2), pages 601-626.
    6. Vivek Ghosal & Yang Ye, 2015. "Uncertainty and the employment dynamics of small and large businesses," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 529-558, March.
    7. Todd D. Gerarden & Richard G. Newell & Robert N. Stavins, 2017. "Assessing the Energy-Efficiency Gap," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1486-1525, December.
    8. François J Dessart & Jesús Barreiro-Hurlé & René van Bavel, 2019. "Behavioural factors affecting the adoption of sustainable farming practices: a policy-oriented review," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 46(3), pages 417-471.
    9. Yemshanov, Denys & McCarney, Geoffrey R. & Hauer, Grant & Luckert, M.K. (Marty) & Unterschultz, Jim & McKenney, Daniel W., 2015. "A real options-net present value approach to assessing land use change: A case study of afforestation in Canada," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 327-336.
    10. Schleich, Joachim & Gassmann, Xavier & Faure, Corinne & Meissner, Thomas, 2016. "Making the implicit explicit: A look inside the implicit discount rate," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 321-331.
    11. Matthias Buchholz & Oliver Musshoff, 2021. "Tax or green nudge? An experimental analysis of pesticide policies in Germany [A psychological study of the inverse relationship between perceived risk and perceived benefit]," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 48(4), pages 940-982.
    12. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Tran, Vuong Thao & Tee, Chwee Ming & Nguyen, Dat Thanh, 2021. "Oil price uncertainty, CSR and institutional quality: A cross-country evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    13. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    14. David Dillenberger, 2008. "Preferences for One-Shot Resolution of Uncertainty and Allais-Type Behavior," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-036, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    15. Yu, Zhihan & Ning, Zhuo & Chang, Wei-Yew & Chang, Sun Joseph & Yang, Hongqiang, 2023. "Optimal harvest decisions for the management of carbon sequestration forests under price uncertainty and risk preferences," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Koskela, Erkki, 2007. "Taxation and rotation age under stochastic forest stand value," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 113-127, July.
    17. Abildtrup, Jens & Strange, Niels, 2000. "The option value of non-contaminated forest watersheds," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 115-125, August.
    18. Creamer, Selmin F. & Genz, Alan & Blatner, Keith A., 2012. "The Effect of Fire Risk on the Critical Harvesting Times for Pacific Northwest Douglas-Fir When Carbon Price Is Stochastic," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 1-14, December.
    19. Philipp Strack & Paul Viefers, 2021. "Too Proud to Stop: Regret in Dynamic Decisions," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 165-199.
    20. Di Corato, Luca & Gazheli, Ardjan & Lagerkvist, Carl-Johan, 2013. "Investing in energy forestry under uncertainty," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 56-64.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:50:y:2015:i:c:p:11-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/forpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.