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Investigating intended evacuation from wildfires in the wildland-urban interface: Application of a bivariate probit model

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  • Mozumder, Pallab
  • Raheem, Nejem
  • Talberth, John
  • Berrens, Robert P.

Abstract

With evidence of increasing wildfire risks in wildland-urban interface zones in the U.S. West and elsewhere, understanding intended evacuation behavior is a growing issue for community planners. This research investigates intended evacuation behavior due to wildfire risks, using mail survey data collected from over 1000 households in the East Mountain area outside Albuquerque, New Mexico (USA). Respondents were asked whether they would evacuate under both voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders. Bivariate probit probability models are used to jointly investigate the subjective belief structure of whether or not the respondent is concerned about wildfire risk, and the intended probability of evacuating as a function of risk perception, and a variety of socioeconomic and demographic variables (e.g. gender, political affiliation, length of residence, owning animals and amenity ratings).

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  • Mozumder, Pallab & Raheem, Nejem & Talberth, John & Berrens, Robert P., 2008. "Investigating intended evacuation from wildfires in the wildland-urban interface: Application of a bivariate probit model," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(6), pages 415-423, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:10:y:2008:i:6:p:415-423
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    Cited by:

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    2. Johanna Guth & Sven Wursthorn & Andreas Ch. Braun & Sina Keller, 2019. "Development of a generic concept to analyze the accessibility of emergency facilities in critical road infrastructure for disaster scenarios: exemplary application for the 2017 wildfires in Chile and ," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 97(3), pages 979-999, July.
    3. Rebecca R. Thompson & Dana Rose Garfin & Roxane Cohen Silver, 2017. "Evacuation from Natural Disasters: A Systematic Review of the Literature," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 37(4), pages 812-839, April.
    4. Sarah McCaffrey & Robyn Wilson & Avishek Konar, 2018. "Should I Stay or Should I Go Now? Or Should I Wait and See? Influences on Wildfire Evacuation Decisions," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1390-1404, July.
    5. Miguel Esteban & Jeremy Bricker & Ricardo San Carlos Arce & Hiroshi Takagi & NamYi Yun & Warathida Chaiyapa & Alexander Sjoegren & Tomoya Shibayama, 2018. "Tsunami awareness: a comparative assessment between Japan and the USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1507-1528, September.
    6. Soga, Kenichi PhD & Comfort, Louise PhD & Li, Pengshun & Zhao, Bingyu PhD & Lorusso, Paola, 2024. "Testing Wildfire Evacuation Strategies and Coordination Plans for Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Communities in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt78n6n8rf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
    7. Pallab Mozumder & William F. Vásquez, 2018. "Understanding Hurricane Evacuation Decisions Under Contingent Scenarios: A Stated Preference Approach," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(2), pages 407-425, October.
    8. Magnusson, Leandro M. & Roth, Sebastian, 2024. "Trust, risk, and gender: Evidence from the Black Saturday Fires in Victoria, Australia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 21-39.
    9. Pascal Haegeli & Wolfgang Haider & Margo Longland & Ben Beardmore, 2010. "Amateur decision-making in avalanche terrain with and without a decision aid: a stated choice survey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(1), pages 185-209, January.

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