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Owner mapping for forest scenario modelling — A Lithuanian case study

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  • Mozgeris, Gintautas
  • Brukas, Vilis
  • Stanislovaitis, Andrius
  • Kavaliauskas, Marius
  • Palicinas, Michailas

Abstract

Ample research on private forest owners (PFOs) has established high heterogeneity in owners' objectives, motivations and management decisions. Such heterogeneity is, however, rarely taken into account in forest scenario modelling. This study, in contrast, conducts a detailed forest owner mapping that feeds into simulations of ecosystem services (ES) under alternative future scenarios. First, we identify four private forest owner types (FOT) – Forest Businessmen, Household Foresters, Passive Forest Lovers, and Ad Hoc Owners through in-depth interviews and qualitative analyses on a case study area in western Lithuania. Next, each forest estate and forest compartment is assigned a FOT by combining the property registry and forest characteristics with opinions of two types of local experts: state forest managers and inspectors from the State Forest Service. Third, a set of forest management (FM) programmes is specified using field interviews and desktop research, FM records, and expert judgement for each forest compartment. Finally, ES provision is projected using a behavioural matrix combining management styles of FOTs with details of FM programmes. We simulate the dynamics of profits from forestry activities, accumulated carbon in live biomass and tree species diversity under a reference scenario without substantial changes; and a policy intervention scenario. The study demonstrates that treating forest owners as a homogenous group overestimates profits from timber and underestimates the provision of the other analysed ES, potentially misinforming policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Mozgeris, Gintautas & Brukas, Vilis & Stanislovaitis, Andrius & Kavaliauskas, Marius & Palicinas, Michailas, 2017. "Owner mapping for forest scenario modelling — A Lithuanian case study," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(P2), pages 235-244.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:forpol:v:85:y:2017:i:p2:p:235-244
    DOI: 10.1016/j.forpol.2016.02.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joshi, Sudiksha & Arano, Kathryn G., 2009. "Determinants of private forest management decisions: A study on West Virginia NIPF landowners," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 132-139, March.
    2. Beach, Robert H. & Pattanayak, Subhrendu K. & Yang, Jui-Chen & Murray, Brian C. & Abt, Robert C., 2005. "Econometric studies of non-industrial private forest management: a review and synthesis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 261-281, March.
    3. Gregory, S. Amacher & Christine Conway, M. & Sullivan, Jay & Gregory, S. Amacher, 2003. "Econometric analyses of nonindustrial forest landowners: Is there anything left to study?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 137-164.
    4. Pattanayak, Subhrendu K. & Abt, Robert C. & Sommer, Allan J. & Cubbage, Fred & Murray, Brian C. & Yang, Jui-Chen & Wear, David & Ahn, SoEun, 2004. "Forest forecasts: does individual heterogeneity matter for market and landscape outcomes?," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3-4), pages 243-260, June.
    5. Ficko, Andrej & Boncina, Andrej, 2013. "Probabilistic typology of management decision making in private forest properties," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 34-43.
    6. Musshoff, Oliver & Maart-Noelck, Syster Christin, 2014. "An experimental analysis of the behavior of forestry decision-makers — The example of timing in sales decisions," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 31-39.
    7. Urquhart, Julie & Courtney, Paul, 2011. "Seeing the owner behind the trees: A typology of small-scale private woodland owners in England," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(7), pages 535-544, September.
    8. Andersson, Mats & Gong, Peichen, 2010. "Risk preferences, risk perceptions and timber harvest decisions -- An empirical study of nonindustrial private forest owners in northern Sweden," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 330-339, June.
    9. Vilis Brukas & Andrius Kuliešis & Ola Sallnäs & Edgaras Linkevičius, 2011. "Resource availability, planning rigidity and Realpolitik in Lithuanian forest utilization," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35, pages 77-88, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Makrickiene, Ekaterina & Brukas, Vilis & Brodrechtova, Yvonne & Mozgeris, Gintautas & Sedmák, Róbert & Šálka, Jaroslav, 2019. "From command-and-control to good forest governance: A critical interpretive analysis of Lithuania and Slovakia," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    2. Gintautas Mozgeris & Vaiva Kazanavičiūtė & Daiva Juknelienė, 2021. "Does Aiming for Long-Term Non-Decreasing Flow of Timber Secure Carbon Accumulation: A Lithuanian Forestry Case," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-24, March.
    3. Lodin, Isak & Brukas, Vilis, 2021. "Ideal vs real forest management: Challenges in promoting production-oriented silvicultural ideals among small-scale forest owners in southern Sweden," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Mozgeris, Gintautas & Kavaliauskas, Marius & Brukas, Vilis & Stanislovaitis, Andrius, 2019. "Assessment of timber supply under alternative contextual scenarios," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 36-44.
    5. Ekström, Hanna & Danley, Brian & Clough, Yann & Droste, Nils, 2024. "Barking up the wrong tree? - A guide to forest owner typology methods," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).

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