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Limited cognition and clustered asset prices: Evidence from betting markets

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  • Brown, Alasdair
  • Yang, Fuyu

Abstract

Asset prices tend to cluster at round numbers. We examine betting exchange data on U.K. horse races to establish whether limited cognition is partially responsible for this clustering. The key tool in this study is the stark increase in cognitive load faced by traders during races compared to prior to races. Using an approach that is part regression discontinuity and part difference-in-differences, we find that traders exhibit a substantially higher propensity to quote round numbers, rather than the nearest non-round numbers, during races. This result is robust to a series of placebo tests.

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  • Brown, Alasdair & Yang, Fuyu, 2016. "Limited cognition and clustered asset prices: Evidence from betting markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 27-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:29:y:2016:i:c:p:27-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2015.10.003
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dave Cliff & James Hawkins & James Keen & Roberto Lau-Soto, 2021. "Implementing the BBE Agent-Based Model of a Sports-Betting Exchange," Papers 2108.02419, arXiv.org.
    2. Justin Cox & Adam L. Schwartz & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert A. Van Ness, 2021. "The Predictive Power of College Football Spreads: Regular Season Versus Bowl Games," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 251-273, April.
    3. Heraud, Florian & Page, Lionel, 2024. "Does the left-digit bias affect prices in financial markets?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 20-29.
    4. Mills, Brian M. & Salaga, Steven, 2018. "A natural experiment for efficient markets: Information quality and influential agents," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 23-39.
    5. Telli, Şahin & Zhao, Xufeng, 2023. "Clustering in Bitcoin balance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    6. Urquhart, Andrew, 2017. "Price clustering in Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 145-148.
    7. Donglian Ma & Hisashi Tanizaki, 2022. "Intraday patterns of price clustering in Bitcoin," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-25, December.
    8. Gao, Shenghao & Lu, Ruichang & Ni, Chenkai, 2019. "Institutional investors’ cognitive constraints during initial public offerings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    9. Alasdair Brown & Fuyu Yang, 2017. "Salience and the Disposition Effect: Evidence from the Introduction of “Cash‐Outs” in Betting Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 83(4), pages 1052-1073, April.
    10. Ahmed S. Baig & Benjamin M. Blau & R. Jared DeLisle, 2022. "Does mutual fund ownership reduce stock price clustering? Evidence from active and index funds," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 615-647, February.
    11. Quiroga-Garcia, Raquel & Pariente-Martinez, Natalia & Arenas-Parra, Mar, 2022. "Evidence for round number effects in cryptocurrencies prices," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    12. Dave Cliff, 2021. "BBE: Simulating the Microstructural Dynamics of an In-Play Betting Exchange via Agent-Based Modelling," Papers 2105.08310, arXiv.org.
    13. Baig, Ahmed S. & Sabah, Nasim, 2020. "Does short selling affect the clustering of stock prices?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 270-277.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Limited cognition; Price clustering; Regression discontinuity; Difference-in-differences;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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