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The round number heuristic and entrepreneur crowdfunding performance

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  • Lin, Tse-Chun
  • Pursiainen, Vesa

Abstract

We document a novel pattern that campaign goal amounts set by entrepreneurs on Kickstarter exhibit clear clustering at round numbers. We propose that the round number heuristic, a tendency to adopt round numbers as cognitive shortcuts when facing complicated and uncertain situations, may explain the clustering pattern and predict campaign outcomes. Based on 162,863 campaigns between 2009 and 2017, we find a negative relation between the use of round goal amounts and the likelihood of campaign success. Our findings suggest that setting a round number goal conveys useful information about entrepreneur quality that could be used by campaign backers or platforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Tse-Chun & Pursiainen, Vesa, 2021. "The round number heuristic and entrepreneur crowdfunding performance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:corfin:v:68:y:2021:i:c:s0929119921000146
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.101894
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhu, Zujun & Huang, Qian & Liu, Hefu, 2023. "How heuristic cues impact crowdfunding performance: The moderating role of platform competition intensity and platform demand potential," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    2. Maggie Rong Hu & Xiaoyang Li & Yang Shi & Xiaoquan (Michael) Zhang, 2023. "Numerological Heuristics and Credit Risk in Peer-to-Peer Lending," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 34(4), pages 1744-1760, December.
    3. Vesa Pursiainen & Jan Toczynski, 2023. "Retail Investors’ Cryptocurrency Investments," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-51, Swiss Finance Institute.
    4. Zack Jourdan & J. Ken. Corley & Randall Valentine & Arthur M. Tran, 2023. "Fintech: A content analysis of the finance and information systems literature," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 33(1), pages 1-21, December.
    5. Lin, Tse-Chun & Pursiainen, Vesa, 2022. "Regional social capital and moral hazard in crowdfunding," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 37(4).
    6. Choudhary, Priya & Thenmozhi, M., 2024. "Fintech and financial sector: ADO analysis and future research agenda," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    7. Philip E Hulme & Danish A Ahmed & Phillip J Haubrock & Brooks A Kaiser & Melina Kourantidou & Boris Leroy & Shana M Mcdermott, 2024. "Widespread imprecision in estimates of the economic costs of invasive alien species worldwide," Post-Print hal-04633043, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crowdfunding performance; Round number heuristic; Kickstarter; Fintech; Entrepreneur;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

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