IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v67y2024ipas1544612324007803.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The asymmetric effects of upside and downside risks in cryptocurrency markets: Insights from the LUNA and FTX crises

Author

Listed:
  • Aibai, Abuduwali
  • Julaiti, Jiansuer
  • Gou, Shangde

Abstract

Unlike conventional studies on the risk dynamics of cryptocurrency markets, this paper innovatively distinguishes between good and bad volatility to more accurately measure the market's risk spillover under both good and bad shocks. By constructing a network of cryptocurrency market risk spillovers, we delve into the asymmetry between good and bad volatility in the context of risk spillover. Specifically, this study focuses on the risk spillover characteristics during the LUNA and the FTX crises, aiming to uncover the unique manifestations of market risk during this tumultuous period. We find that, overall, the risk spillover from bad volatility tends to exceed that from good volatility. However, at higher levels of risk spillover, the spillovers from good volatility significantly exceed those from bad ones. This observation substantiates the notion that spillovers from good volatility are more likely to accumulate risks, potentially triggering a crisis. This research not only aids investors in better understanding the risk structure of the cryptocurrency market but also provides regulatory bodies with a reference for formulating risk control strategies, thereby holding significant implications for the healthy development of the cryptocurrency market.

Suggested Citation

  • Aibai, Abuduwali & Julaiti, Jiansuer & Gou, Shangde, 2024. "The asymmetric effects of upside and downside risks in cryptocurrency markets: Insights from the LUNA and FTX crises," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:67:y:2024:i:pa:s1544612324007803
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.105750
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612324007803
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.105750?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fang, Libing & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2019. "Does global economic uncertainty matter for the volatility and hedging effectiveness of Bitcoin?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-36.
    2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jana, R.K. & Das, Debojyoti & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Informational efficiency of Bitcoin—An extension," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 106-109.
    3. Liu, Jian & Julaiti, Jiansuer & Gou, Shangde, 2024. "Decomposing interconnectedness: A study of cryptocurrency spillover effects in global financial markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    4. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2018. "Return and volatility spillovers among cryptocurrencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 122-127.
    5. Elie Bouri & Mahamitra Das & Rangan Gupta & David Roubaud, 2018. "Spillovers between Bitcoin and other assets during bear and bull markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(55), pages 5935-5949, November.
    6. Chaim, Pedro & Laurini, Márcio P., 2018. "Volatility and return jumps in bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 158-163.
    7. Gillaizeau, Marc & Jayasekera, Ranadeva & Maaitah, Ahmad & Mishra, Tapas & Parhi, Mamata & Volokitina, Evgeniia, 2019. "Giver and the receiver: Understanding spillover effects and predictive power in cross-market Bitcoin prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 86-104.
    8. Olivier Scaillet & Adrien Treccani & Christopher Trevisan, 2020. "High-Frequency Jump Analysis of the Bitcoin Market," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 209-232.
    9. Zięba, Damian & Kokoszczyński, Ryszard & Śledziewska, Katarzyna, 2019. "Shock transmission in the cryptocurrency market. Is Bitcoin the most influential?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 102-125.
    10. Lin William Cong & Zhiguo He, 2019. "Blockchain Disruption and Smart Contracts," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1754-1797.
    11. Nader Trabelsi, 2018. "Are There Any Volatility Spill-Over Effects among Cryptocurrencies and Widely Traded Asset Classes?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, October.
    12. Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
    13. Jalan, Akanksha & Matkovskyy, Roman, 2023. "Systemic risks in the cryptocurrency market: Evidence from the FTX collapse," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    14. Sean Foley & Jonathan R Karlsen & Tālis J Putniņš, 2019. "Sex, Drugs, and Bitcoin: How Much Illegal Activity Is Financed through Cryptocurrencies?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1798-1853.
    15. Bouri, Elie & Molnár, Peter & Azzi, Georges & Roubaud, David & Hagfors, Lars Ivar, 2017. "On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 192-198.
    16. Symitsi, Efthymia & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J., 2018. "Return, volatility and shock spillovers of Bitcoin with energy and technology companies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 127-130.
    17. Andrew J. Patton & Kevin Sheppard, 2015. "Good Volatility, Bad Volatility: Signed Jumps and The Persistence of Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(3), pages 683-697, July.
    18. Kumar, Anoop S. & Anandarao, S., 2019. "Volatility spillover in crypto-currency markets: Some evidences from GARCH and wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 524(C), pages 448-458.
    19. Yen, Kuang-Chieh & Cheng, Hui-Pei, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and cryptocurrency volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    20. Nadarajah, Saralees & Chu, Jeffrey, 2017. "On the inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 6-9.
    21. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2017. "Volatility estimation for Bitcoin: A comparison of GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 3-6.
    22. Lee, Seungju & Lee, Jaewook & Lee, Yunyoung, 2023. "Dissecting the Terra-LUNA crash: Evidence from the spillover effect and information flow," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    23. Bouri, Elie & Kamal, Elham & Kinateder, Harald, 2023. "FTX Collapse and systemic risk spillovers from FTX Token to major cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    24. Katsiampa, Paraskevi & Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian, 2019. "Volatility spillover effects in leading cryptocurrencies: A BEKK-MGARCH analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 68-74.
    25. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Hedging capabilities of bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 139-144.
    26. Wang, Gang-Jin & Xie, Chi & Wen, Danyan & Zhao, Longfeng, 2019. "When Bitcoin meets economic policy uncertainty (EPU): Measuring risk spillover effect from EPU to Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2019. "A Survey on Empirical Findings about Spillovers in Cryptocurrency Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-17, November.
    2. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    3. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.
    4. Yu, Dejian & Sheng, Libo, 2021. "Influence difference main path analysis: Evidence from DNA and blockchain domain citation networks," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4).
    5. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Robert Mudida & Nuruddeen Abu, 2021. "Market efficiency and volatility persistence of cryptocurrency during pre‐ and post‐crash periods of Bitcoin: Evidence based on fractional integration," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1318-1335, January.
    6. Ahmed, Mohamed Shaker & El-Masry, Ahmed A. & Al-Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Kumar, Satish, 2024. "Cryptocurrency volatility: A review, synthesis, and research agenda," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Ángeles Cebrián-Hernández & Enrique Jiménez-Rodríguez, 2021. "Modeling of the Bitcoin Volatility through Key Financial Environment Variables: An Application of Conditional Correlation MGARCH Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-16, January.
    8. Xinyu Huang & Weihao Han & David Newton & Emmanouil Platanakis & Dimitrios Stafylas & Charles Sutcliffe, 2023. "The diversification benefits of cryptocurrency asset categories and estimation risk: pre and post Covid-19," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 800-825, May.
    9. Parthajit Kayal & G. Balasubramanian, 2021. "Excess Volatility in Bitcoin: Extreme Value Volatility Estimation," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 222-231, July.
    10. ORĂȘTEAN Ramona & MĂRGINEAN Silvia Cristina & SAVA Raluca, 2019. "Bitcoin In The Scientific Literature – A Bibliometric Study," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 14(3), pages 160-174, December.
    11. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2019. "Cryptocurrency market contagion: Market uncertainty, market complexity, and dynamic portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 37-51.
    12. Shimeng Shi & Yukun Shi, 2021. "Bitcoin futures: trade it or ban it?," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4-5), pages 381-396, March.
    13. Li, Xiao & Wu, Ruoxi & Wang, Chen, 2024. "Impacts of bitcoin on monetary system: Is China's bitcoin ban necessary?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    14. Dejian Yu & Libo Sheng, 2020. "Knowledge diffusion paths of blockchain domain: the main path analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(1), pages 471-497, October.
    15. Cynthia Weiyi Cai & Rui Xue & Bi Zhou, 2023. "Cryptocurrency puzzles: a comprehensive review and re-introduction," Journal of Accounting Literature, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 46(1), pages 26-50, June.
    16. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2019. "Hedging bitcoin with other financial assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 30-36.
    17. Dyhrberg, Anne H. & Foley, Sean & Svec, Jiri, 2018. "How investible is Bitcoin? Analyzing the liquidity and transaction costs of Bitcoin markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 140-143.
    18. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    19. Helder Sebastião & Pedro Godinho, 2021. "Forecasting and trading cryptocurrencies with machine learning under changing market conditions," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-30, December.
    20. Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Olubusoye, Olusanya E., 2019. "How persistent and dynamic inter-dependent are pricing of Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies before and after 2017/18 crash?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 531(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrency; Volatility; Risk Spillover;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:67:y:2024:i:pa:s1544612324007803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.