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Overnight indexed swap-implied interest rate expectations

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  • Lloyd, Simon P.

Abstract

Overnight indexed swap (OIS) rates are regularly used to measure interest rate expectations. But how suitable are they? What tenors can we rely on? Assessing their performance in the US, UK, Eurozone and Japan, I find they provide broadly reliable measures of rate expectations out to around the 2-year tenor. Beyond these horizons, they contain persistent premia that complicate their use.

Suggested Citation

  • Lloyd, Simon P., 2021. "Overnight indexed swap-implied interest rate expectations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:38:y:2021:i:c:s1544612319310761
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101430
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    2. Jens H. E. Christensen & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2012. "The Response of Interest Rates to US and UK Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 385-414, November.
    3. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    4. Raiko Shareef, 2013. "Developments in New Zealand’s overnight indexed swaps market," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 76, pages 25-33, March.
    5. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
    6. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
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    Cited by:

    1. Munday, Tim & Brookes, James, 2021. "Mark my words: the transmission of central bank communication to the general public via the print media," Bank of England working papers 944, Bank of England.
    2. Gregory de Walque & Thomas Lejeune & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2023. "Empirical DSGE model evaluation with interest rate expectations measures and preferences over safe assets," Working Paper Research 433, National Bank of Belgium.
    3. Realdon, Marco, 2024. "The efficiency of the Estr overnight index swap market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    4. Gnewuch, Matthias, 2022. "Spillover effects of sovereign debt-based quantitative easing in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy expectations; Overnightindexed swaps;

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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