IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nbp/nbpbik/v48y2017i3p263-294.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Monetary policy and financial asset prices in Poland

Author

Listed:
  • Mariusz Kapuściński

    (National Bank of Poland)

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of monetary policy on financial asset prices in Poland. Following Gürkaynak et al. (2005), I test how many factors adequately explain the variability of short-term interest rates around meetings of the Monetary Policy Council, finding that there are two such factors. The first one has a structural interpretation as a “current interest rate change” factor and the second one as a “future interest rate changes” factor, with the latter related to monetary policy communication. Regression analysis shows that not only changes in the current interest rate but also monetary policy communication matters for government bond yields, stock prices and the exchange rate in Poland. It has important implications for the conduct of monetary policy, especially in a low inflation and low interest rate environment.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariusz Kapuściński, 2017. "Monetary policy and financial asset prices in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(3), pages 263-294.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:48:y:2017:i:3:p:263-294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://bankikredyt.nbp.pl/content/2017/03/BIK_03_2017_02Kapuscinski.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ippolito, Filippo & Ozdagli, Ali K. & Perez-Orive, Ander, 2018. "The transmission of monetary policy through bank lending: The floating rate channel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-71.
    2. Magdalena Zachłód-Jelec, 2010. "Interrelations between Consumption and Wealth in Poland," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 37-58, January.
    3. Kuttner, Kenneth N., 2001. "Monetary policy surprises and interest rates: Evidence from the Fed funds futures market," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 523-544, June.
    4. Marc Lavoie, 2014. "Post-Keynesian Economics: New Foundations," Post-Print hal-01343652, HAL.
    5. Michal Brzoza-Brzezina & Marcin Kolasa & Mateusz Szetela, 2016. "Is Poland at risk of the zero lower bound?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 47(3), pages 195-226.
    6. Gino Cenedese & Richard Payne & Lucio Sarno & Giorgio Valente, 2016. "What Do Stock Markets Tell Us about Exchange Rates?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1045-1080.
    7. Dobromł Serwa, 2006. "Do emerging financial markets react to monetary policy announcements? Evidence from Poland," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 513-523.
    8. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael, 2016. "Shocking language: Understanding the macroeconomic effects of central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 114-133.
    9. Jeffrey R. Campbell & Charles L. Evans & Jonas D.M. Fisher & Alejandro Justiniano, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 1-80.
    10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    11. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    12. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    13. Refet S Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(1), May.
    14. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1999. "Information from financial markets and VAR measures of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 825-837, April.
    15. Grzegorz Wesoƚowski, 2018. "Do long-term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6174-6192, December.
    16. Marek Rozkrut, 2008. "It’s not only WHAT is said, it’s also WHO the speaker is. Evaluating the effectiveness of central bank communication," NBP Working Papers 47, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    17. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    18. Barakchian, S. Mahdi & Crowe, Christopher, 2013. "Monetary policy matters: Evidence from new shocks data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 950-966.
    19. Wayne Velicer, 1976. "Determining the number of components from the matrix of partial correlations," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 41(3), pages 321-327, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Swanson, Eric T., 2021. "Measuring the effects of federal reserve forward guidance and asset purchases on financial markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 32-53.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Joao B Duarte & Samuel Mann, 2022. "One Money, Many Markets [Fixed Rate Versus Adjustable Rate Mortgages: Evidence from Euro Area Banks]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 513-548.
    3. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2015. "Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission," Discussion Papers 1613, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2016.
    4. Chen, Zhengyang, 2019. "The Long-term Rate and Interest Rate Volatility in Monetary Policy Transmission," MPRA Paper 96339, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Aeimit Lakdawala, 2019. "Decomposing the effects of monetary policy using an external instruments SVAR," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(6), pages 934-950, September.
    6. Mark Gertler & Peter Karadi, 2015. "Monetary Policy Surprises, Credit Costs, and Economic Activity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 44-76, January.
    7. Andrade, Philippe & Ferroni, Filippo, 2021. "Delphic and odyssean monetary policy shocks: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 816-832.
    8. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2021. "Reprint: Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    9. Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Thwaites, Gregory & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2020. "Monetary policy transmission in the United Kingdom: A high frequency identification approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    10. Dahlhaus, Tatjana & Vasishtha, Garima, 2020. "Monetary policy news in the US: Effects on emerging market capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Möller, Rouven & Reichmann, Doron, 2021. "ECB language and stock returns – A textual analysis of ECB press conferences," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 590-604.
    12. Corsetti, G. & Duarte, J. B. & Mann, S., 2018. "One Money, Many Markets - A Factor Model Approach to Monetary Policy in the Euro Area with High-Frequency Identification," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1816, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Luca Gambetti, 2018. "Noisy Monetary Policy," Staff Working Papers 18-23, Bank of Canada.
    14. van der Zwan, Terri & Kole, Erik & van der Wel, Michel, 2024. "Heterogeneous macro and financial effects of ECB asset purchase programs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    15. Hansen, Stephen & McMahon, Michael & Tong, Matthew, 2019. "The long-run information effect of central bank communication," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 185-202.
    16. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Duarte, Joao B. & Mann, Samuel, 2020. "One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 14968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Lakdawala, Aeimit & Schaffer, Matthew, 2019. "Federal reserve private information and the stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 34-49.
    18. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    19. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    20. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy; financial asset prices;

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpbik:v:48:y:2017:i:3:p:263-294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wojciech Burjanek (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nbpgvpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.