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The effects of the introduction of Bitcoin futures on the volatility of Bitcoin returns

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  • Kim, Wonse
  • Lee, Junseok
  • Kang, Kyungwon

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of the launch of Bitcoin futures on the intraday volatility of Bitcoin. Based on one-minute price data collected from five cryptocurrency exchanges, we first examine the change in realized volatility after the introduction of Bitcoin futures to investigate their aggregate effects on the intraday volatility of Bitcoin. We then analyze the effects in more detail utilizing the discrete Fourier transform. We show that although the Bitcoin market became more volatile immediately after the introduction of Bitcoin futures, over time it has become more stable than it was before the introduction.

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  • Kim, Wonse & Lee, Junseok & Kang, Kyungwon, 2020. "The effects of the introduction of Bitcoin futures on the volatility of Bitcoin returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:33:y:2020:i:c:s154461231830713x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2019.06.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Assaf, Ata & Bhandari, Avishek & Charif, Husni & Demir, Ender, 2022. "Multivariate long memory structure in the cryptocurrency market: The impact of COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Liao, Xiaosai, 2023. "Futures trading activity and the jump risk of spot market: Evidence from the bitcoin market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Apostolakis, George N., 2024. "Bitcoin price volatility transmission between spot and futures markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Aiman Hairudin & Azhar Mohamad, 2024. "The isotropy of cryptocurrency volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3779-3810, July.
    5. Smales, L.A., 2022. "Investor attention in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Weige Huang & Xiang Gao, 2023. "Forecasting Bitcoin Futures: A Lasso-BMA Two-Step Predictor Selection for Investment and Hedging Strategies," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, January.
    7. Shimeng Shi & Jia Zhai & Yingying Wu, 2024. "Informational inefficiency on bitcoin futures," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 642-667, April.
    8. Dirk G. Baur & Lee A. Smales, 2022. "Trading behavior in bitcoin futures: Following the “smart money”," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1304-1323, July.
    9. B M, Lithin & chakraborty, Suman & iyer, Vishwanathan & M N, Nikhil & ledwani, Sanket, 2022. "Modeling asymmetric sovereign bond yield volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 117067, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2023.
    10. Arun Narayanasamy & Humnath Panta & Rohit Agarwal, 2023. "Relations among Bitcoin Futures, Bitcoin Spot, Investor Attention, and Sentiment," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-24, November.
    11. Hung, Jui-Cheng & Liu, Hung-Chun & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2021. "Trading activity and price discovery in Bitcoin futures markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 107-120.
    12. Dun Li & Dezhi Han & Zibin Zheng & Tien-Hsiung Weng & Kuan-Ching Li & Ming Li & Shaokang Cai, 2024. "Does Short-and-Distort Scheme Really Exist? A Bitcoin Futures Audit Scheme through BIRCH & BPNN Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 63(4), pages 1649-1671, April.
    13. Kao, Yu-Sheng & Day, Min-Yuh & Chou, Ke-Hsin, 2024. "A comparison of bitcoin futures return and return volatility based on news sentiment contemporaneously or lead-lag," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Hattori, Takahiro & Ishida, Ryo, 2021. "Did the introduction of Bitcoin futures crash the Bitcoin market at the end of 2017?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    15. Kao, Yu-Sheng & Zhao, Kai & Chuang, Hwei-Lin & Ku, Yu-Cheng, 2024. "The asymmetric relationships between the Bitcoin futures’ return, volatility, and trading volume," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 524-542.
    16. Zhang, Chuanhai & Chen, Haicui & Peng, Zhe, 2022. "Does Bitcoin futures trading reduce the normal and jump volatility in the spot market? Evidence from GARCH-jump models," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
    17. Zhang, Chuanhai & Ma, Huan & Arkorful, Gideon Bruce & Peng, Zhe, 2023. "The impacts of futures trading on volatility and volatility asymmetry of Bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bitcoin; Bitcoin futures; Intraday volatility; Realized volatility; Discrete Fourier transform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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